Liberty and Coastal Carolina reignite their old Big South rivalry on Thursday, Sept. 24, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) when the two programs hit the "Surf Turf" at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C.
The Flames are 2.5-point road favorites, and with both teams seeing success from their QBs, my Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction and college football picks expect another high-scoring game between these two.
Who will win Liberty vs Coastal Carolina: Liberty -2.5
This is the first time Liberty and Coastal Carolina have played in more than five years. The last time they played it was an instant classic, a 37-34 OT win for the Flames, and this matchup could follow a similar script — but with Liberty winning bigger (I like the Flames at -4.5 or better).
Liberty has found something special in QB Deshawn Purdie, who is coming off a dominant performance in a 51-15 win over Ball State. Purdie leads the country in ADOT (13.7), and his willingness to attack deep should make the difference against a Coastal Carolina defense that's 109th in EPA per pass.
And Liberty's pass defense (19th in EPA per pass) should slow Coastal's deep passing game enough to win by 3+ points in a high-scoring game.
COVERS INTEL: Coastal Carolina's defense ranks 113th in early-down EPA per play and 90th in third/fourth down success (48.4%), which bodes well for a Liberty offense that's 34th nationally in early-down EPA per play and 15th in third/fourth down success (57.6%).
TOP PICK
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Over/Under pick: Over 51.5
This is the 16th time Liberty and Coastal Carolina have played since 2003, and historically the Chanticleers' and Flames' matchups have been high on points, which is why I like the Over at 52.5 or better.
In the previous 15 games, the two have finished with an average game total of 61.6, scoring 70+ points in six of the last 10. The old rivals should provide another shootout this time around on the "Surf Turf" in Conway.
Both programs have struggled on defense this season, with Coastal Carolina ranking 77th in available yards percentage (48.6%) and Liberty sitting 109th in EPA per rush.
These QBs love to hunt for big plays, too, with both Purdie and Deuce Bailey ranking Top three nationally in ADOT. Expect explosive downfield plays early and often.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina combo
These two teams love to put on a show when they play, and they should once again in their first matchup in over half a decade. Liberty has one of the highest-ranked offenses by SP+ (76th), and Coastal has one of the lowest-ranked defenses (112th).
But the Chants have the offensive firepower with Bailey to push Liberty's defense, especially on first and second down. Coastal is 32nd nationally in early-down EPA per play on offense, and that's an area Liberty's defense struggles the most (96th).
I have Liberty taking this game 31-26.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina combo
- Liberty -2.5
- Over 51.5
- Coastal Carolina TT Over 23.5
- Top picks: 7-6, +0.25 units
- Combos: 3-10, -0.67 units
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Liberty -2.5 | Coastal Carolina +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (47%) | Under 51.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Liberty 56% | Coastal Carolina 44%
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Liberty vs Coastal Carolina weather
Although the forecast calls for rain throughout the day, it's expected to dissipate in the evening. The weather should have no real impact on the game Thursday night.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Liberty's last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Find more college football betting trends for Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina.
How to watch Liberty vs Coastal Carolina
| Location | Brooks Stadium, Conway, S.C. |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina latest injuries
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