A pivotal clash awaits in the Sunshine State as Florida hosts Texas in a rare showdown between the two programs.
It marks just the fifth all-time meeting and the first in Gainesville since the 1940s. For the Longhorns, it’s their conference opener—though after a season-opening stumble against Ohio State, they’ve quietly slipped from the spotlight despite still controlling their own destiny.
The Gators, meanwhile, are simply trying to stop the bleeding after dropping three straight and watching their season teeter on the brink.
My Texas vs. Florida predictions break it all down as I bring you my college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Texas vs Florida prediction
Texas vs Florida best bet: Texas -6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
In full transparency, I’m a little confused with this one. It feels like Florida keeps getting priced as either: 1. A team finally about to stand up and do something with their head coach’s job on the line, or 2. A team that simply can’t be as bad as what we’ve seen.
That was the case against LSU as a 4.5-point underdog, and again against Miami as a 6.5-point underdog. They failed to cover both, and here we are again. I don’t get why this continues, so I’m grabbing the Horns to cover as my best bet.
My projections flirted with double digits on this spread. Texas has its flaws, but not the depth of problems Florida has. I’m not sure how the Gators score consistently here.
I’ve been bullish on QB DJ Lagway, but Florida’s passing offense ranks just 115th in EPA per dropback. Now they face a Texas defense that ranks top-20 across the board and thrives on havoc — an area Florida has struggled to contain.
On the other side, Texas QB Arch Manning has underperformed, but there are subtle signs he’s turning a corner. Against an average secondary, he’ll have a chance to build momentum.
Fortunately for Texas, he doesn’t need to do much for them to cover.
Texas vs Florida same-game parlay
Our same-game parlay builds upon the narrative of our best bet.
I expect Arch Manning to build on a couple of solid performances and throw two touchdown passes against a suspect Florida secondary.
Likewise, I expect it to be tough sledding for Gators QB DJ Lagway against one of the best secondaries in the country.
Texas vs Florida SGP
- Texas -6.5
- Arch Manning Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- DJ Lagway Under 189.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Longhorns Defense Frustrate Lagway
I’ll continue my fade of DJ Lagway. It’s mostly about the Texas defense more than him.
I’m not even sure Florida scores two touchdowns total in this game, so I’m happy to say Lagway doesn’t throw two himself.
I’ll also add Parker Livingstone to find paydirt. If the Horns are having success pushing the ball downfield, then there’s a good chance he’ll be involved, as he leads all Texas players in yards per reception.
Texas vs Florida SGP
- Texas -6.5
- Arch Manning Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- DJ Lagway Under 189.5 passing yards
- DJ Lagway Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Parker Livingstone anytime TD
Texas vs Florida game predictions
Texas vs Florida moneyline prediction
Texas. The Longhorns are a more dynamic and talented football team, especially defensively.
Texas vs Florida spread prediction
Texas -6.5. This elite defense will suffocate Florida; the Horns to cover is my best bet.
Texas vs Florida Over/Under prediction
Over 41. This isn’t a strong opinion, but my projection of 42.5 says this is a little short.
Texas vs Florida odds
- Spread: Texas -6.5 (-114) | Florida +6.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: Texas -240 | Florida +198
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Texas vs Florida trend to know
Texas has hit the 1H moneyline in 11 of its last 14 games (+7.15 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Florida.
How to watch Texas vs Florida
| Location | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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