Texas A&M looks to avoid a defeat today that would all but doom its season when it visits Missouri on Saturday afternoon in SEC action. The Aggies enter with just a 39% win probability for the noon ET kickoff.
The Aggies are already 1-2 in the SEC, and my Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction is backing the favored Tigers (-3.5) to get the job done.
Read on for my Week 6 college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Oct. 10. For more on this game and the rest of the slate, see our Week 6 Top 25 predictions and best bets.
TOP PICK
Who will win Texas A&M vs Missouri today? Pick: Missouri -3.5
The Texas A&M Aggies will struggle to protect Marcel Reed, which is why I'm backing the Missouri Tigers to cover the spread at up to 54%.
Reed has been pressured on 42.5% of his 127 dropbacks, completing just 10 of 27 passes attempted in those spots compared to 17 scrambles.
The Aggies will be behind the chains quite often against a Missouri defense ranked in the top 20 in average third-down distance and early-down EPA/play.
Add in Missouri's ability to hit big pass plays against a porous A&M defense, and Reed could be scrambling for his life much of the afternoon.
COVERS INTEL: The Tigers rank in the 96th percentile in creating havoc on defense, and their 7.80 tackles for loss per game rank 13th nationally. With Texas A&M's offense ranked 111th in early-down EPA and 109th in EPA/pass, the Aggies will be susceptible to that pressure. 
Texas A&M vs Missouri Over/Under pick: Over 48.5
Every Missouri game this season, save for its 27-17 win over Troy, has cleared 50 points, and for good reason: the Tigers are giving up too many explosive plays. They rank in the 47th percentile in yards allowed per dropback and 55th in third-down success.
While Reed and the Aggies aren't going to take advantage enough to cover the spread, they will help push this total north of 50 yet again.
What will also help here is Missouri's need to throw the ball. Even with the lead, the Tigers will struggle to run it. They rank 118th in rushing success rate, which won't get it done against A&M's top-25 run defense.
I'm playing the Over to 53%.
Texas A&M vs Missouri combo
The Aggies have scored just 21 first-quarter points in four games against FBS schools, and 14 of those came last week against lowly Arkansas.
For the Tigers, the opening quarter has been a struggle. Despite averaging 33.5 points per game in four FBS matchups, they've managed to score just three points in the opening stanza.
I'm backing the teams to have another low-scoring opening 15 minutes before breaking into an entertaining contest, as Missouri's games tend to do.
Texas A&M vs Missouri combo
- Missouri -3.5
- Missouri Over 27.5 points
- Under 7.5 points 1st quarter
Texas A&M vs Missouri prop: Missouri Over 26.5 points
That very need to keep airing it out is why I'm backing the Tigers to score at least 27, playable up to 54%.
The Tigers have done a great job keeping Austin Simmons clean in the pocket. He's responded with 13 touchdowns to no picks and a 71.4% completion rate when not pressured.
The Aggies have surrendered 16 completions of 20+ yards already, and Simmons will prey on a defense ranked in the 19th percentile in yards per dropback and 18th percentile in explosive pass rate allowed.
A&M will be in for a long day trying to cover both Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode, especially downfield.
Texas A&M vs Missouri market trends
Here is how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today's Texas A&M vs. Missouri matchup, with early action on the Aggies.
More Week 6 college football picks
- Brad Powers' Week 6 power rankings: best bets, upgrades and downgrades
- College football Week 6 moneyline picks
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 6
- College football AI predictions Week 6: ATS and Over/Under picks for every game
- College football Week 6 picks against the spread
- Our favorite college football combos for Week 6
- College football Top 25 predictions and best bets: Week 6
- Our favorite Group of 6 predictions: Week 6
- College football player props: Week 6
- Top picks: 0-3, -3.30 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3.00 units
Texas A&M vs Missouri odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas A&M +3.5 | Missouri -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (51%) | Under 48.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Texas A&M 40% | Missouri 60%
For the full slate of Week 6 college football matchups, check out our Week 6 college football odds board!
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Texas A&M vs Missouri weather
With temperatures in the upper 70s giving way to the mid-80s, no rain, and light winds, it should be a great afternoon for football.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas A&M vs Missouri trend to know
Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of its last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 49% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Missouri.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Missouri
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Texas A&M vs Missouri latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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