Texas A&M vs Missouri Picks & Props
TAM vs MIZZ Picks
NCAAF PicksPlayable to 54%.
Missouri struggles to run the ball, and Texas A&M is great at stopping it. That means even with a lead, the Tigers will likely keep throwing against a defense defense ranked in the 19th percentile in yards per dropback and 18th percentile in explosive pass rate allowed.
Take the Over here, up to 53%.
The Missouri defense ranks in the 47th percentile in yards allowed per dropback, and 55th in third-down success.
While Reed and the Aggies aren't going to take advantage enough to cover the spread, the Aggies will help push this total north of 50 yet again.
I'm backing Missouri against the spread up to 54%.
Reed has been pressured on 42.5% of his 127 dropbacks, completing just 10 of the 27 passes attempted in those spots.
The Aggies will struggle to protect him against a Missouri defense ranked Top 20 in average third down distance and early downs EPA/play.
The Aggies have scored just 21 first-quarter points in four games against FBS schools, and 14 of those came last week against lowly Arkansas.
For the Tigers, the opening quarter has been a struggle. Despite averaging 33.5 points per game in four FBS matchups, they've managed to score just three points in the opening stanza.
I'm backing the teams to have another low-scoring opening 15 minutes before breaking into an entertaining contest, as Missouri's games tend to do.
TAM vs MIZZ Consensus Picks
TAM vs MIZZ Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
217.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+18.5
DIFFERENCE
26.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
R. Owens II
(RB)
u62.5 Rushing Yards
50.58 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.9
DIFFERENCE
25.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIZZ
J. Roberts
(RB)
o106.5 Rushing Yards
114.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
22.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
u29.5 Rushing Yards
27.54 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
14.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
M. Craver
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
64.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.9
DIFFERENCE
26.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIZZ
J. Roberts
(RB)
o12.5 Receiving Yards
16.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
24.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIZZ
C. Lee
(WR)
u88.5 Receiving Yards
79.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.2
DIFFERENCE
22.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIZZ
D. Olugbode
(WR)
o67.5 Receiving Yards
71.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
17.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
o53.5 Receiving Yards
53.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-5.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIZZ
C. Lee
(WR)
u6.5 Receptions
5.66 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
10.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
1.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIZZ
D. Olugbode
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-10.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
u10.5 Carries
10.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-0.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
MIZZ
A. Simmons
(QB)
u18.5 Completions
17.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
16.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o16.5 Completions
18.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
13.39%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Aggies last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 11-1 in Aggies last 12 games as a road favorite.
Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.