Tennessee vs Arkansas Picks & Props
TENN vs ARK Picks
NCAAF PicksTennessee ranks 18th in EPA allowed per pass, making the aerial escape route difficult for an Arkansas offense already struggling to run efficiently. Arkansas ranks 125th in rushing success rate, so it can’t reliably lean on the ground game to keep Tennessee’s coverage honest.
That combination makes touchdown drives hard to repeat. Tennessee can challenge Arkansas to sustain possession rather than overcommit to stopping the run, leaving fewer favorable opportunities for the explosive passes that could otherwise compensate for stalled series.
Arkansas is poorly equipped to supply its share of a shootout. Its offense ranks 131st in early-down EPA per play, repeatedly leaving longer conversion attempts against a Tennessee defense that ranks 25th in that same early-down metric.
That puts pressure on Arkansas to rescue possessions through the air rather than build drives on favorable terms. Tennessee’s offense brings its own limitation: a 33% passing success rate, ranking 131st. A quarterback change could improve that, but pricing in an immediate transformation would be aggressive.
Tennessee’s biggest offensive weakness shouldn’t dictate this game. The metrics rank its rushing attack fourth nationally in EPA per rush, while Arkansas ranks 128th defending the run. That’s a direct route around the passing problems.
DeSean Bishop gives Tennessee a back capable of turning that mismatch into sustained offense. Arkansas can crowd the line, but its inability to consistently win against the run makes that adjustment easier to draw up than execute.
Arkansas starts its average possession at its own 27-yard line, ranking 108th nationally. That leaves considerable ground to cover against a defense allowing opponents to gain only 34% of available yards, ranking 16th.
Those longer fields favor empty possessions or drives that consume time without producing touchdowns. Tennessee’s rushing matchup should also make protecting a lead more sustainable, reducing the need for aggressive passing late. Pairing its moneyline with the full-game Under and Arkansas’ touchdown Under captures that the best.
TENN vs ARK Consensus Picks
58% picking Tennessee
Total Picks TENN 178, ARK 128
TENN vs ARK Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
TENN
G. MacIntyre
(QB)
o205.5 Passing Yards
224.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+18.9
DIFFERENCE
25.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
ARK
K. Jackson
(QB)
o204.5 Passing Yards
221.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.8
DIFFERENCE
23.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ARK
S. Smith
(RB)
u29.5 Rushing Yards
23.59 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.9
DIFFERENCE
25.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TENN
D. Bishop
(RB)
o112.5 Rushing Yards
115.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
-23.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ARK
C. Marshall
(WR)
o79.5 Receiving Yards
92.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.5
DIFFERENCE
25.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
o44.5 Receiving Yards
50.30 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
23.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
M. Matthews
(WR)
o57.5 Receiving Yards
62.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
19.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ARK
S. Smith
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
10.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
M. Matthews
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
3.69 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TENN
D. Bishop
(RB)
o18.5 Carries
19.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
9.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ARK
K. Jackson
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
20.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.3
DIFFERENCE
19.26%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Volunteers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Razorbacks last 6 games overall.
Over is 6-1 in Razorbacks last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-1 in Volunteers last 6 games overall.
ROI Trends
TENN vs ARK Top User Picks
'Sandsaver727' is picking Tennessee to cover (-13.5)
Sandsaver727 is #1 on picking games that Arkansas are in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.
'Paintedface' is picking Tennessee to cover (-13.5)
Paintedface is #1 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +5000 units on the season.
'northlv6238' is picking Arkansas to cover (+13.5)
northlv6238 is #10 on picking games that Arkansas are in with a record of (4-1-0) and +2900 units on the season.
'Jerrybook' is picking Tennessee to cover (-13.5)
Jerrybook is #4 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.
'timstutler25' is picking Arkansas to cover (+13.5)
timstutler25 is #5 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'Piazzametsfan31' is picking Tennessee to cover (-13.5)
Piazzametsfan31 is #6 on picking games that Arkansas are in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'Haloman' is picking Tennessee to cover (-13.5)
Haloman is #7 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +2900 units on the season.
'pittsburghphil' is picking Arkansas to cover (+13.5)
pittsburghphil is #9 on picking games that Arkansas are in with a record of (4-1-0) and +2900 units on the season.