TCU vs Arizona State Prediction, Picks & Odds for September 26 — College Football Week 5

TCU is undefeated heading into Week 5, and the Horned Frogs have enough firepower to topple the Sun Devils.

JD Yonke - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Betting Analyst
Sep 24, 2025 • 09:29 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Match starts: 58 hrs
ASU
39 %
TCU
61 %
Read Analysis
TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws the ball during the first half against the SMU Mustangs at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Photo By - Imagn Images. TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws the ball during the first half against the SMU Mustangs at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

It’s going down Friday night in Tempe when the Arizona State Sun Devils host the TCU Horned Frogs in a matchup between two of the Big 12’s best teams. 

See why I’m bullish on the Frogs with my TCU vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks for Friday, September 26.

TCU vs Arizona State prediction

TCU vs Arizona State best bet: TCU +2.5 (-110)

Kenny Dillingham proved his worth a year ago when he brought the Arizona State Sun Devils from irrelevance to the playoffs, and don’t forget ASU was a 4th & 13 miracle conversion away from toppling Texas in the first round. 

Still, I have to side with the TCU Horned Frogs on Friday night as they’ve simply looked like the superior squad through the first couple of weeks.

Josh Hoover (9.7 yards per attempt) is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He commands a potent offense that should be able to take advantage of a beatable Arizona State defense ranked 96th in success rate. 

On the flip side, Dillingham’s offense is still searching for its identity. He’s mostly opted for 12 personnel, slowing the game down and avoiding throwing the ball due to a one-dimensional attack that’s only featured one viable receiver thus far in Jordyn Tyson. 

Sonny Dykes’ TCU squad looks like a true threat in the Big 12 and is firing on all cylinders.
 

TCU vs Arizona State same-game parlay

Wide receiver Eric McAlister was the star of the college football world in Week 4, catching eight passes for 254 yards and three scores against SMU.

He even had a fourth touchdown wiped off the board when he was ruled out of bounds, so he’s clearly a potent weapon and is primed for a monster season. 

Sam Leavitt’s legs are going to be utilized a lot this season for an offense that’s bogged down in the red zone sans Cam Skattebo, and that’s evident in the quarterback’s rushing production (219 rushing yards and four touchdowns) through four games.

TCU vs Arizona State SGP

  • TCU +2.5
  • Eric McAlister anytime touchdown
  • Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown

Our deep-ball SGP: Hoov away

Hoover has thrown for at least 280 yards in every game and will continue to be relied on every week, especially with starting running back Kevorian Barnes banged up.

TCU vs Arizona State SGP

  • TCU +2.5
  • Eric McAlister anytime touchdown
  • Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown
  • Josh Hoover Over 285.5 passing yards

TCU vs Arizona State odds

  • Spread: TCU +2.5 | Arizona State -2.5
  • Moneyline: TCU +110 | Arizona State -132
  • Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5

TCU vs Arizona State trend to know

TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs Arizona State.

How to watch TCU vs Arizona State

Location Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Date Friday, September 26, 2025
Kickoff 9:00 p.m. ET
TV FOX

TCU vs Arizona State latest injuries

TCU vs Arizona State weather

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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