Houston vs Oregon State Prediction, Picks & Odds for September 26 — College Football Week 5

Our Houston vs. Oregon State predictions think the Beavers are more than capable of keeping this game close at home.

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Sep 24, 2025 • 09:45 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Match starts: 55 hrs
ORST
22 %
HOU
78 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Oregon State +13.5 (-110) Oregon State +13.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Maalik Murphy Oregon State Beavers Pac-12 college football
Photo By - Imagn Images. Maalik Murphy during Oregon State's last game against Oregon.

The undefeated Houston Cougars travel to Corvallis to take on the winless Oregon State Beavers in non-conference Friday Night Lights action.

While Houston is one of the best cover teams in the country, my Houston vs. Oregon State predictions expect the Beavers to make a game of it. Read on for my college football picksfor Friday, September 26.

Houston vs Oregon State prediction

Houston vs Oregon State best bet: Oregon State +13.5 (-110)

The Houston Cougars may be 13.5-point road favorites, but that number feels inflated. The Oregon State Beavers have faced two straight ranked opponents, while Houston’s schedule has been far softer.

The Beavers are 0-4 ATS, yet their average non-cover margin is under nine points, showing they’ve been competitive. Offensively, Oregon State is far more explosive than a year ago, already logging 15 passing completions of 20+ yards.

Oregon State quarterback Maalik Murphy and wideout Trent Walker will provide enough of a consistent vertical threat against a Cougars group boasting gaudy defensive numbers against inferior competition.

Defensively, the Beavers have major flaws, but Houston pivot Conner Weigman hasn’t shown he can consistently exploit secondaries downfield. He'll rack up the passing yards, but I don’t believe Houston can really hurt Oregon State enough to cover such a considerable number. 

With Oregon State’s ability to generate big plays at home, I’m betting they're better than its 0-4 ATS mark. The Beavers will keep this game within the number.

Houston vs Oregon State same-game parlay

In addition to my best bet, Oregon State’s offense is explosive enough to put points on the board, while its struggling defense ensures points for both sides, pushing this game Over the total.

Weigman should exploit this weak Beavers secondary, making the Over 202.5 passing yards a solid addition to this parlay.

Houston vs Oregon State SGP

  • Oregon +13.5
  • Over 47.5
  • Connor Weignman Over 202.5 passing yards

Our deep-ball SGP: Touchdown frenzy

  • Dean Connors has scored a dozen touchdowns since 2024
  • Trent Walker has already topped 300 receiving yards this season, and I like his chances of hauling in his first scoring strike of the year. 

Houston vs Oregon State SGP

  • Oregon +13.5
  • Over 47.5
  • Connor Weignman Over 202.5 passing yards
  • Dean Connors anytime touchdown
  • Trent Walker anytime touchdown

Houston vs Oregon State odds

  • Spread: Houston -11.5 | Oregon State +11.5
  • Moneyline: Houston -250 | Oregon State +200
  • Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5

Houston vs Oregon State trend to know

Houston is 2-1 to the Over in its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for Houston vs Oregon State.

How to watch Houston vs Oregon State

Location Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
Date Friday, September 26, 2025
Kickoff 10:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Houston vs Oregon State latest injuries

Houston vs Oregon State weather

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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