The biggest reason the Ohio State Buckeyes sit ahead of the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks in the national championship odds is that it does not need to face either of these powerhouses for another month.
If the Nittany Lions, in particular, had an easier schedule, their national championship odds would be far shorter than the current +650 at FanDuel.
My Oregon vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks effectively expect the Nittany Lions’ title odds to begin shortening after this week. Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 27.
Oregon vs Penn State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Oregon vs Penn State spread pick: Penn State -3.5
To be completely honest, I have not bet this yet. That is because I am okay if I have to bet Penn State at -4, but I am hoping to see a -3 pop up in the market. And that -105 gives a slight suggestion that I might.
These are the two best teams in the country, despite Ohio State sitting higher on the odds board at +550 to win it all. The Buckeyes have a clearer path to the College Football Playoff, and that is one of two factors in those odds, along with overall roster talent. That clear path matters yet.
But Penn State is better than Ohio State. So is Oregon. And this should be a heavyweight tilt.
Siding with the Nittany Lions derives more from their defense than anything. Opponents are worried about passing against Penn State, hence running the ball 10.8% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, the 13th-highest rate in the country.
That could put Oregon in some trouble. The Ducks have a complete offense, but it is at its best when Dante Moore is putting the ball in the air.
If that is an undue risk on the road in primetime at Penn State, then suddenly Oregon may need to adjust course, and that is enough of an edge to side with the Nittany Lions in the biggest game of the season to date.
Early Oregon vs Penn State total pick: Under 52.5
Consider this a pace of play thought. Those worries about throwing against Penn State can also apply to throwing against Oregon, opponents running the ball at the second-highest rate in the country this season.
But the Nittany Lions will largely be okay with that, boasting arguably the best backfield in the country. (Either Penn State or Notre Dame gets to make that claim, and there is no genuine third contender.) Penn State will take the challenge of running against a defense that is only good, not necessarily great, against the run.
If Oregon is doing the same thing, this game should slow down. That is enough logic to taking this Under as long as the total lingers above 51 and 52, both key numbers in college football totals betting.
Oregon vs Penn State odds
- Oregon vs. Penn State spread: Penn State -3.5
- Oregon vs. Penn State moneyline: Oregon +130, Penn State -156
- Oregon vs. Penn State Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Oregon vs Penn State
- Oregon vs. Penn State matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: University Park
- Venue: Beaver Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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