The Mississippi Rebels may have an unexpected perk. Does Lane Kiffin actually have two quality quarterbacks at his disposal? The emergence of Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss raises the wonder.
If Chambliss continues to find success against the LSU Tigers, then that wonder should be dismissed and instead replaced by absolute certainty.
But my LSU vs. Mississippi predictions and college football picks doubt Chambliss and the Rebels this weekend. Kickoff comes at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 27.
LSU vs Mississippi predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early LSU vs Mississippi spread pick: LSU +1.5
The growing shorthand is “backup quarterback syndrome,” a clunky phrase that does not quite convey the thought, but a shorthand that gets it across to some audiences.
The thought is that a lot of backup quarterbacks find initial success because they are relative unknowns to opposing defensive coordinators. But as they are seen on film, those coming defenses are better designed and the backup quarterbacks reveal why they were backups in the first place.
LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, led in some part by one of the most talented secondaries in the country. The Tigers are a ripe defense to prove “backup quarterback syndrome” once again by making Trinidad Chambliss look human.
He has not erred much in his two games since Austin Simmons was injured.
Chambliss has completed 67.7% of his passes this season for 11.6 yards per attempt and four touchdowns, adding a notable ground threat, as well. He ran for two touchdowns to hold off Arkansas two weeks ago and cracked 100 yards against Tulane last week.
Betting on LSU is betting on the Tigers to solve Chambliss now that they have two full games of film on him. The betting markets do not inherently bake in this thought of regression from a backup quarterback. That brings us value.
Early LSU vs Mississippi total pick: Under 55.5
LSU believed it had one of the quarterbacks that would define the 2025 season, but so far the Tigers have been more about their defense than about Garrett Nussmeier. Their offense ranks No. 60 in expected points added (EPA) per snap, far from a threat.
There is a reason all three LSU games against FBS opponents this season have cashed their Unders. To emphasize that, those three games have gone Under their pregame totals by an average of 21.8 points.
Tigers head coach Brian Kelly knows he does not want to get into a shootout with Lane Kiffin. Kelly has avoided it in two of the three times they have matched up, and the one exception resulted in a Mississippi win.
Expect LSU to throw some unique defensive wrinkles at Chambliss in only his second career FBS start, all while showing a rather conservative game plan for its own thus-far mediocre offense.
LSU vs Mississippi odds
- LSU vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -1.5
- LSU vs. Mississippi moneyline: LSU -105, Mississippi -114
- LSU vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 55.5
How to watch LSU vs Mississippi
- LSU vs. Mississippi matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Oxford
- Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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