How do you handle regret? Do you let a single mistake haunt you for nearly twenty years? Do you nurse a glass of whiskey while replaying what could’ve been?
Back in 2007, during his first stint with the West Virginia Mountaineers, Rich Rodriguez had his team ranked No. 2 heading into the final week of the regular season—only to suffer a crushing home loss to rival Pittsburgh and watch a national title shot slip away.
My Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia predictions and college football picks don’t see this one ending 13-9, but expect plenty of flashbacks this weekend to the most iconic game in Backyard Brawl history.
Kickoff comes at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 13.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia prediction
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia best bet: West Virginia team total Under 24.5 (-125)
The West Virginia Mountaineers rehired Rich Rodriguez for a second tenure 18 years after he left following that 13-9 loss that doomed any national title hopes. This reunion should work out in the long run.
Rodriguez’s unique offense has never lost its groove, only topped out with hefty expectations at Michigan. It just created three straight nine-win seasons at Jacksonville State, of all places, getting "Rich Rod" this second chance in Morgantown.
But that offense needs exact personnel, and the Mountaineers do not have that personnel right now.
They do not have it along the offensive line. They most certainly do not have it in the backfield, particularly following Jahiem White’s season-ending injury last week.
As much as Rodriguez would love to deploy 18 years of plays drawn on bar napkins to exact revenge against the Pittsburgh Panthers, he simply does not have the players to execute those plays.
When at its best, Rodriguez’s offense runs the ball more often than expected than all but about 10 other teams in the country. Last season, Jacksonville State ranked No. 11 in the country by rushing 13.6% more often than an average team would in a given game state.
West Virginia cannot do that right now, losing 0.31 expected points per rush in last week’s 17-10 loss at Ohio.
Much is left to be desired from this offense. And if the Mountaineers do try to run the ball, Pittsburgh’s defense is best on the ground.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia same-game parlay
As West Virginia's offense loses any sense of success, the cost of losing White for the season, Pittsburgh should get ample opportunities to do what it does best, and these days that is rely on quarterback Eli Holstein.
Two Holstein touchdown passes should have the Panthers well on their way to covering this spread of -7.5, despite that pesky hook.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia 4-leg SGP
- West Virginia team total Under 24.5
- Pittsburgh -7.5
- Eli Holstein Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Grayson Barnes Under 23.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Air is where Holstein fares best
Eli Holstein has run for 77 yards on 11 carries through two games, but Pittsburgh should keep him in the pocket more in the Backyard Brawl to get out to a quick lead against West Virginia.
A quick deficit may force the Mountaineers away from their run game, Rodriguez's staple, and that will lead to only offensive ineffectiveness. It will be too much to ask of Pitt to approach this total on its own.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia 6-leg SGP
- West Virginia team total Under 24.5
- Pittsburgh -7.5
- Eli Holstein Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Grayson Barnes Under 23.5 receiving yards
- Eli Holstein Under 26.5 rushing yards
- Under 56.5
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia game predictions
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia moneyline prediction
The storyline wants an upset. The venue wants an upset. But 18 years is a long time, and hopefully Rich Rodriguez has found a way to sleep since then. Ideally his whiskey drinking focuses on the day ahead of him and not the missed chance nearly two decades ago.
If he is still hung up on that December night, this is not the weekend that will provide any calm or vengeance.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia spread prediction
The hook makes this a difficult pill to swallow. A Pittsburgh -7 bet is far more palatable, for obvious reasons. Regardless, the doubt in West Virginia’s offense should be strong enough to encourage bets on the Panthers.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia Over/Under prediction
West Virginia’s inept offense should be enough to keep this rivalry well Under its total.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh -7.5 | West Virginia +7.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -275 | West Virginia +220
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia trend to know
West Virginia has fallen short of its team total in both games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Pittsburgh vs West Virginia.
How to watch Pittsburgh vs West Virginia
| Location | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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