The New York Yankees and New York Mets meet for game two of the Subway Series on Saturday night, with Carlos Rodon making just his second start of the season against what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Bronx Bombers' crosstown rivals.
I like the same story from last night to repeat.
Read all about it in my Yankees vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Who will win Yankees vs Mets today: Yankees -1.5 (+125 at Polymarket)
I was at least slightly surprised at this price and would play it down to +110. Perhaps there are still lingering concerns about New York Yankees hurler Carlos Rodon after a pretty rough season debut, where he allowed three earned runs in just 4 innings pitched.
But that was just that: a season debut.
This matchup against the New York Mets is strong. Batting average is hardly a tell-all stat, but the Mets' .216 against southpaws this season stands out.
Couple that with the Mets still being short-handed, having a below league average hard-hit rate against lefties at 33%, and things start to point in one direction.
COVERS INTEL: Huascar Brazoban's average exit velocity on his pitches ranks in the top 2% of baseball at 83.4 MPH.
Yankees vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100 at Polymarket)
I like Mets arm Huascar Brazoban. He looks to be the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Mets and should have some success.
His hard-hit rate and barrel rate sit in the top 3% of baseball, which should help him avoid any early crooked numbers from the Yankees.
I eventually expect the Yankees to open the scoring up against a relatively taxed bullpen; there is still plenty of reason to think this looks a lot like last night rather than some offensive showcase.
I projected this total at 8 and would play it to there.
- ML/RL bets: 18-16, +1.16 units
- Over/Under bets: 22-12, +12.59 units
Yankees vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -135 | Mets +110
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Mets +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Mets trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.
How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Saturday, May 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (0-0, 6.23 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Huascar Brazoban (2-1, 2.14 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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