I have three guidelines for betting on the Heisman Trophy odds in the preseason.
First, the Heisman is typically won by a quarterback (13 of the last 16 winners). Second, it’s okay to bet a longshot, as 12 of the last 16 winners opened at +2000 or higher.
Finally, the player must be on a playoff contender — the last 16 Heisman winners have played on teams that won an average of 10.6 games in the regular season.
With these guidelines in mind, my early 2026 Heisman Trophy best bets tell you why Brendan Sorsby and Lincoln Kienholz should be live tickets all season long.
Early 2026 Heisman Trophy best bets
| Best bets |  |
|---|---|
 Brendan Sorsby |
+2000 |
 Lincoln Kienholz |
+8000 |
| Worth watching | |
 Jeremiah Smith |
+1300 |
 Keelon Russell |
+3000 |
| Austin Mack |
+5500 |
 Jayden Maiava |
+2700 |
Brendan Sorsby (Texas Tech) to win 2026 Heisman Trophy
Brendan Sorsby is coming off a solid season where he posted a 27-5 TD-INT ratio while also running for 580 yards and nine scores.
He finished No. 10 in QBR and would have received more recognition had he not played on a 7-5 Cincinnati team. Now Sorsby transfers to the defending Big 12 champions in the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and will be surrounded by more talent.
Texas Tech’s current win total is 11.5. The only downside would be Texas Tech doesn’t have a big-time national spotlight game that often moves the needle in the Heisman market late in the season (a la the Big Ten Championship game last season).
Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville) to win 2026 Heisman Trophy
Lincoln Kienholz only has 36 career pass attempts, but there's a lot of upside.
He was a highly-regarded three-sport athlete in high school and was named USA Today’s National Athlete of the Year in 2023. Just last August, the battle between Kienholz and Julian Sayin for the starting quarterback spot at Ohio State was too close to call.
Now Kienholz transfers to the Louisville Cardinals to play in a QB-friendly system under head coach Jeff Brohm. There were rave reviews on Kienholz during spring practice.
Louisville could be favored in 10 games this year, and they have a national spotlight game in Week 1 vs. Mississippi on a Sunday night. An upset win there, and Kienholz could be a big riser in the Heisman markets right away.
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Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1300)
Jeremiah Smith is arguably the best player in college football regardless of position. He has a chance to break every Ohio State career receiving mark (receptions, yards, and touchdowns) this season and will be playing in spotlight games almost on a weekly basis.
After nearly 30 years of not having a wide receiver win the Heisman, we’ve seen two in the last six years. Smith could become the third.
Alabama QBs Keelon Russell (+3000) and Austin Mack (+5500)
Neither Keelon Russell nor Austin Mack has been named the starter yet. Mack has more experience in Kalen DeBoer’s system dating back to Washington. However, Russell has more upside.
Russell’s Heisman odds went from the +7500 range to as low as +3000 after his outstanding spring game performance. Whoever wins the starting job will likely have preseason Heisman odds no worse than +2500.
USC QB Jayden Maiava (+2700)
Lincoln Riley-coached quarterbacks have won three Heisman trophies since 2017 (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams). Maiava is coming off a season where he quietly ranked No. 1 in the country in QBR.
If Maiava can cut down on the turnovers (26 career interceptions), he should have his best season yet as a starter.
2026 Heisman Trophy odds and analysis
| Player | Position | |
|---|---|---|
 CJ Carr |
QB | +800 |
 Arch Manning |
QB | +800 |
 Trinidad Chambliss |
QB | +1000 |
 Josh Hoover |
QB | +1200 |
| Julian Sayin |
QB | +1200 |
 Dante Moore |
QB | +1200 |
| Jeremiah Smith |
WR | +1300 |
 Darian Mensah |
QB | +1300 |
 Gunner Stockton |
QB | +1600 |
| Brendan Sorsby |
QB | +2000 |
There’s no surprise at the top with Arch Manning being one of the favorites for the second year in a row. Unlike last season, the hype is more deserved, as Manning closed the season with three straight games with a 90.0-plus QBR.
His best performance of his career was the Citrus Bowl win over Michigan, where he threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a career-high 155 yards and two touchdowns.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is a co-favorite with Manning. Last year, Carr ranked No. 2 in the country in yards per attempt and No. 5 in quarterback rating. He should put up bigger numbers this year with Notre Dame relying more on the passing game after losing the top two running backs to the NFL Draft.
Mississippi QB Trinidad Chambliss is next after ranking No. 5 in QBR last year while having big-time performances in the CFB playoffs. I have reservations though, considering Mississippi’s win total is only 7.5.
Finally, Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover transfers in from TCU. Note that Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has had five different quarterbacks earn first or second-team all-conference honors in his last five seasons.
