The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have been generous to Under backers this season, posting matching 18-24 O/U records.
My Red Sox vs. Braves predictions expect another low-scoring game in the cards Saturday night.
Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 16.
Who will win Red Sox vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-140)
Payton Tolle has struggled against teams hitting for high average, allowing three runs over five innings in both starts vs. Top-10 teams in average.
The Atlanta Braves lead the majors in BA, OPS, and SLG. They are loaded and have the ability to make life tough on Tolle.
He will need run support that he is unlikely to get. The Boston Red Sox rank 28th in wOBA, and 30th in ISO, against right-handed pitching
It'll be difficult for them to outperform the norms facing Bryce Elder, who owns an expected ERA of 2.91 and an xBA of .208.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves lead the league with 14 wins against left-handed starters, sporting a 14-3 record.
Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-115)
The best way to score runs in bulk is with the longball but hitting homers will be a difficult challenge for both teams in this matchup.
Elder has done a fantastic job of suppressing power, allowing 0.49 homers per nine innings while posting a remarkably strong 3.5% barrel rate. That puts him in the 90th percentile league-wide.
Tolle has conceded 0.72 homers per nine innings and ranks second among today's projected starting pitchers in soft contact rate.
It's difficult to square up either of these arms, and stringing together hit after hit is also a tall order given Elder and Tolle both rank 83rd percentile or higher in xBA.
- ML/RL bets: 17-10, +3.48 units
- Over/Under bets: 11-15-1, -6.41 units
Red Sox vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox +120 | Braves -140
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Red Sox vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the Under in 23 of their last 35 home games (+12.2 units, 32% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.
How to watch Red Sox vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Saturday, May 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, BravesVision |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (1-2, 2.78 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (4-1, 1.81 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries
Red Sox vs Braves weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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