One of the biggest games of Week 4 takes place tonight as Oregon travels to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on USC.
Our Oregon vs. USC expert picks are completely aligned on how Saturday night's Big Ten showdown will unfold — a high-scoring affair with the Ducks coming out on top.
For more college football picks, check out our full Oregon vs. USC prediction for Saturday, Sept. 26, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Oregon vs USC expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Over 61.5 |
51% |
 Rob Paul: Over 61.5 |
51% |
 Colby Marchio: Oregon ML |
61% |
 Chris Vasile: Oregon -3.5 |
47% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Over 61.5
Price: 51% at Kalshi
The average total score between Oregon and USC is 75 over the last 10 meetings, well above this posted total.
All three of Oregon’s games this season have gone Over the total by an average of 12 points per game. On the other side, USC has seen three of its four games go Over by an average of eight points per outing.
USC hasn't played an offense that ranks in the Top 70 so far this season. Now, the Trojans face an Oregon unit that has the No. 5 scoring offense, averaging 49.7 points per contest.
One could argue Oregon's defense has been the most disappointing unit in college football so far this season, allowing 33 points per game to Boise State and Oklahoma State. Now, the Ducks face the most talented offense they’ve seen so far this season.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Over 61.5
Price: 51% at Kalshi
USC's defense hasn't improved under Gary Patterson, last allowing 460 yards and 35 points to a Rutgers offense that scored just 21 points in losses to UMass and Boston College.
Meanwhile, Oregon's offense has scored 31+ points in all three games and is ranked sixth by SP+. The Ducks are also expected to get tight end Jamari Johnson, one of Dante Moore's favorite targets, back for this matchup.
Moore, Johnson, and Co. should move the ball smoothly against a USC defense that's 90th in EPA per pass, 107th in EPA per rush, and fourth-worst in the Big Ten in havoc rate (13.5%).
As has become the norm under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans' offense is prolific. Jayden Maiava is 10th nationally in QBR, and USC's offense ranks second nationally in available yards percentage (75.8%). Oregon's defense has been a disappointment thus far and is just 14th in the Big Ten in havoc rate (15.1%).
The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between the Ducks and Trojans.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Oregon moneyline
Price: 61% at Kalshi
I have absolutely no faith in this Trojans defense, which was talked up all offseason as a new and improved unit.
While the same argument can be made about Oregon, I have far more confidence in the Ducks’ offense in this spot against a defense that was nearly outgained by Rutgers last week, allowed UL Lafayette to rack up nearly 360 yards, and surrendered more than 330 yards to San Jose State.
With this being USC’s first true test of the season, I fully expect Oregon to move the ball however it wants up and down the field.
I’m not fooling around with the spread. I just want the win.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Oregon -3.5
Price: 47% at Kalshi
I still can't rely on Lincoln Riley and this USC defense. The Trojans just surrendered 460 yards and 35 points to Rutgers, and now the degree of difficulty skyrockets against Dante Moore and the Ducks.
Oregon's defense also needs to elevate after allowing 39 at Oklahoma State, but this unit has held opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and a 22% third-down conversion rate.
With Oregon's season essentially on the line, I trust the Ducks to get the stops USC can't. Give me Oregon -3.5.
How to watch Oregon vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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