USC will look to beat Oregon for the first time under Lincoln Riley when the old Pac-12 rivals meet at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in L.A. on Saturday, Sept. 26, at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC).
The Ducks are 2.5-point favorites, and my Oregon vs. USC combos and college football picks expect Dan Lanning to beat Riley yet again in a high-scoring shootout.
Best Oregon vs USC combos
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Oregon vs USC combo
In the previous two matchups between Dan Lanning's Oregon program and Lincoln Riley's USC, the Ducks outscored the Trojans 78 to 54. Defense is the biggest reason Lanning is 2-0 against Riley, and as I detailed in my Oregon vs. USC prediction, USC's defense remains a major problem.
The Trojans allowed 35 points last week to a Rutgers team that scored just 21 against UMass, and USC ranks 90th in EPA per pass, 107th in EPA per rush, and fourth-worst in the Big Ten in havoc rate (13.5%).
Oregon has the offense to take advantage, with Dante Moore ranking in the Top 10 nationally in TD passes (nine) and star tight end Jamari Johnson expected back for this matchup. However, USC shouldn't struggle to score much either.
The Trojans are top 10 nationally in both net adjusted EPA per play and offensive success rate (66.2%). Meanwhile, the Ducks' defense has been disappointing this season, giving up 39 to Oklahoma State and 27 to Boise State.
In recent Oregon vs. USC rivalry history, the games have been high-scoring, with the Over hitting in seven of the last 10 matchups. The Ducks have dominated the series, too, winning six of the last seven.
Oregon vs USC player prop combo
This quarterback matchup is a huge reason why Oregon vs. USC is among the must-watch games in my Week 4 college football Top 25 predictions.
While Moore is the QB getting more NFL attention, Jayden Maiava has been just as important to USC's success. He's ninth nationally in QBR (87.5) and leads the country in both passing yards (1,173) and TD passes (12).
If the Trojans are going to make up for their defensive shortcomings, they'll need to go to the air with Maiava often, as USC ranks third in passing success rate this season (66.2%). For Moore to keep pace with USC's aerial attack, he'll need to rely on Johnson.
The projected first-round pick missed the Ducks' loss to Oklahoma State, and it was clear the offense needed him as its seam threat. In Week 1, Moore had a 153.8 NFL QB rating when targeting Johnson, who had 57 yards in the opener (he's averaging 56.8 receiving yards over his last seven games).
And when the Ducks get near the goal line, it's Jordon Davison time. The 225-pounder has scored 19 touchdowns in 17 career games, including last year against USC.
- Combos: 3-11, -1.67 units
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