Saturday night gives us a ranked SEC clash under the lights as No. 23 Texas A&M visits No. 10 LSU in Death Valley.
The Aggies are underdogs after last weekend's home loss to Kentucky, but Marcel Reed's legs are one of the prop angles we're targeting, along with Jackson Harris' big-play ability.
Here are our three best Texas A&M vs LSU prop picks and college football picks for this prime-time showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Best Texas A&M vs LSU props
Prop pick #1: Marcel Reed Over 27.5 rushing yards
Marcel Reed is hurting opponents by turning broken plays into big gains. His 12 scrambles under pressure are third-most in college football this season, and he ranks sixth nationally with 136 scramble yards.
Reed has done this despite a time to throw that ranks in the Top 30 among quarterbacks, something he won't be able to rely on against LSU. The Tigers rank seventh in pass rushing according to PFF, and Trinidad Chambliss picked up 32 rushing yards against them last week, with 25 coming on scrambles.
Five of Reed's 16 scrambles have gone for double-digit yardage, so he's a threat to break a big run every time he takes off. That gives this prop a very reasonable floor, especially at this probability.
Playable to 53%.
Prop pick #2: Dilin Jones Under 94.5 rushing yards
LSU is getting decent production on the ground from Dilin Jones this season, but much of it has been volume-driven. Take away his 46-yard run against Louisiana Tech, and he's averaging just 3.79 yards per carry.
The Aggies rank in the 86th percentile in line yards allowed per GameOnPaper, while LSU's offensive line ranks in the 39th percentile in that category. Texas A&M also ranks 17th in success rate against the run.
Jones needed 23 carries against Mississippi's defense, which ranks in the 42nd percentile in line yards and 71st in success rate, to reach 106 yards. He'll have a much tougher path to clearing this number against Texas A&M.
Playable to 57%.
Prop pick #3: Jackson Harris Over 34.5 receiving yards
Jackson Harris has caught only five of his 14 targets this season and is coming off a season-low five receiving yards against Mississippi. However, his big-play ability makes him an appealing option here.
His 11.4-yard average depth of target intrigues me most against an Aggies defense that ranks in the 39th percentile in explosive pass rate and the 26th percentile in yards allowed per dropback.
Combine those factors with Harris leading the Tigers with 13.8 yards after the catch, and he could clear this number with just one or two receptions.
Playable to 54%.
- Prop picks: 3-2, +1.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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