In Arch Manning's first career road start, his Texas team fell to Ohio State in Columbus. But this year the Buckeyes have to travel to Austin to take on the Longhorns at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 12 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Longhorns are a 1.5-point favorite at home, and my Ohio State vs. Texas predictions and college football picks project a low-scoring defensive battle between these two Top-5 programs for a second straight season.
Ohio State vs Texas predictions
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Early Ohio State vs Texas side pick: Texas moneyline
Despite Ohio State winning last year's matchup against Texas, Julian Sayin was shaky in his first career start. And though he went on to be a Heisman Trophy odds finalist, the Buckeyes' signal-caller also struggled in his other two starts against Top-10 teams, Indiana and Miami.
Across those three starts, he threw three interceptions and took 10 sacks.
Sayin will be the key to this year's matchup in Austin, and while he's once again a Heisman favorite, it's Texas that has the QB advantage. Arch Manning had a bumpy start last season, but vastly improved down the stretch with an 87.9 QBR from November onward, best in the country.
With the way Steve Sarkisian bolstered the offense in the portal with additions like Cam Coleman, Melvin Siani, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown, Texas can pressure an Ohio State defense that's 78th in returning production (50%).
Given what Ohio State has to replace on defense, the Longhorns' home-field advantage, and the additions around Manning, I would take Texas to win at 55% or better.
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Early Ohio State vs Texas total pick: Over 48.5
A lot has changed since Ohio State beat Texas 14-7 in last year's opener. For starters, both of these teams are college football national championship odds contenders because of their offensive firepower.
Manning and Sayin are two of the top QBs in the country and are surrounded by stars like Jeremiah Smith and Coleman, both projected Top-10 picks in the 2027 NFL Draft. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes are also ranked Top 10 on offense by SP+ and are dealing with defensive changes.
For Ohio State, it's personnel-related, with seven defensive starters from last year being drafted, including five in the Top 62 picks (a modern-era record). For Texas, it's coaching-related, with Will Muschamp taking over as defensive coordinator.
At this point in the week, I'm projecting a 27-24 win for Texas and would take the Over on any number lower than 50.5.
Ohio State vs Texas odds
- Ohio State vs Texas spread: Texas -1.5
- Ohio State vs Texas moneyline: Ohio State 48%, Texas 52%
- Ohio State vs Texas Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Ohio State vs Texas
- Ohio State vs Texas matchup
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Austin, Texas
- Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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