Ohio State vs Rutgers Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Back Henderson's Rushing Total in Big Ten Clash

With TreVeon Henderson back in the mix and coming off an outstanding performance last week, we're expecting the Buckeyes lead running back to run wild on the Scarlet Knights in Week 10. Read more in our Ohio State vs. Rutgers betting picks.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Nov 4, 2023 • 08:54 ET • 4 min read
TreVeyon Henderson Ohio State Buckeyes NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Expectations are high in Columbus after Ohio State was ranked No. 1 in the country in the initial CFP rankings this past week. Despite the ranking, the Buckeyes are coming off a messy win on the road against unranked Wisconsin and are away from home again this week to take on a feisty Rutgers team.

The college football odds don’t expect Greg Schiano’s program to shock the world, as Ohio State enters Week 10 as an 18.5-point road favorite over the 6-2 Scarlet Knights. With the Buckeyes appearing to be healthier than they’ve been all season at the skill positions, it looks like Ryan Day’s offense will be able to rely on playmakers other than Marvin Harrison Jr. for the second straight game.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Rutgers on Saturday, November 4.

Ohio State vs Rutgers best odds

Ohio State vs Rutgers picks and predictions

Nobody has been able to slow down Marvin Harrison Jr. this season, as the Ohio State receiver has topped 100 yards in six of his last seven games. His 889 receiving yards rank sixth in the country and first in the Big Ten following Week 9 play. 

That being said, his 103.5-yard receiving line this week may not be the best value you can find with Ohio State player props. Rutgers defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak’s unit has been impressive and ranks 14th in EPA per play on defense and fourth in EPA per pass.

The Scarlet Knights secondary, led by star corner Max Melton, has held teams to 156.3 passing yards per game this season. That’s the second-fewest allowed in the country behind Michigan.

While betting against Harrison Jr. to hit 104 yards feels dicey, betting the Over isn’t the best value to be had either… especially with the return of another Buckeyes star.

After missing three straight games with an undisclosed injury, running back TreVeyon Henderson returned in a big way last week and his explosive play ability was exactly what Ohio State’s backfield had been missing.

Henderson ran wild against a Wisconsin defense that still ranks 17th in EPA per play and finished with 207 yards from scrimmage on 28 touches, including 162 on the ground.

The time off served him well and he looks poised to go Over his 83.5-yard rushing line against Rutgers. While the Scarlet Knights have been shutting teams down through the air, they can be had on the ground.

Rutgers is 60th in EPA per rush on defense and is currently allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game. The Scarlet Knights have especially struggled with the upper-echelon teams of the Big Ten, giving up 213 rushing yards to Wisconsin and 201 to Michigan — their only two losses of the season.

Last week, Henderson looked like his old self, ripping off chunk runs and making defenders look silly in space with his contact balance and lateral explosion. Another important aspect of his performance against the Badgers is that he didn’t split carries, finishing with 24 to Chip Trayanum’s six.

With the news that Miyan Williams is done for the season and Trayanum averaging under 3.5 yards per carry in four of his last five games, it opens the door for Henderson to continue to carry the load.

Even with injuries impacting him this year, Henderson has gone over 83.5 rushing yards in three straight games, including against that physical Notre Dame defense. In his career, he’s had at least 84 rushing yards in 13 of 26 games. Additionally, anytime Henderson has been heavily featured with at least 18 carries, he’s gone over 83.5 rushing yards.

If the Buckeyes RB keeps up his pace of 6.7 per carry on the season, he’ll need just 13 carries to go over 83.5.

My best bet: TreVeyon Henderson Over 83.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Ohio State vs Rutgers same-game parlay

Henderson Over 83.5 rushing yards (-115)

Henderson Over 8,5 receiving yards (-115)

Under 42.5 (-110)

A healthy Henderson doesn’t just help the Buckeyes on the ground; he's also a threat with the ball in his hands as a pass catcher. Against Wisconsin, Henderson's work out of the backfield was the perfect complement to Harrison Jr. as he finished as Ohio State’s second-leading pass catcher.

It will only take one or two catches for the star running back to hit the Over on 8.5 receiving yards and he’s been averaging 18 per game this season, eclipsing Over 8.5 three times in five games.

While he was banged up last year and had Over 8.5 receiving yards just once in eight games, he was a true difference-making receiver out of the backfield as a freshman. In his first year with Ohio State, Henderson averaged 24 receiving yards per game.

Henderson is primed to be the Buckeyes' offensive engine in what’s surely going to be a low-scoring fight between two strong defenses. The total is low at 42.5, but with the struggles of Rutgers' offense and the strength of the Buckeyes' defense, the Under is enticing.

Ohio State is second in the country in points allowed at just 10 per game and the Scarlet Knights aren’t far behind at 15.8 per game, 13th best in the country.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Ohio State vs Rutgers spread and Over/Under analysis

It’s been the Buckeyes by a large margin on the road since the start, with most books opening with Ohio State as 18.5-point favorites and few moving, though Rutgers can be had at some at +19.5.

Ohio State has been wonky at times against the spread this season, going 4-3-1, and failed to cover last week against Wisconsin. However, when facing Big Ten opponents, the Buckeyes are 3-1 against the spread. 

Meanwhile, few teams have been as good ATS as Rutgers this year, as the Scarlet Knights sit at 6-1-1. 

Given the dominant defensive play of the Buckeyes and Rutgers' underrated group, the total opened between 43 and 42.5 at most books and remains there.

Ohio State is one of only three teams to be 1-7 when betting the Over this season, The lone time the Buckeyes hit the Over came in a 63-10 win against Western Kentucky.

Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights are 4-4 to the O/U and are 3-2 to the Under in conference play. 

Ohio State vs Rutgers betting trend to know

Ohio State has hit the game total Under in five of its last seven away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Rutgers.

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Ohio State vs Rutgers game info

Location: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ
Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

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