Notre Dame vs Virginia Picks and Predictions: Irish Don't Need Luck in This Spot

Notre Dame has not lost to an unranked opponent in its last 39 games against them. It has not lost as a favorite in its last 33 such games. It has not lost to an ACC opponent in the regular season in the last 22 meetings with its pseudo-conference foes.

Of course, the Irish failed to cover in many of those games, but that stretch of doing what they are expected to do is rare enough in this sport. It also reduces the presumed possibilities for such a game. Virginia might cover against Notre Dame, but it is harder than usual to envision an upset from such a meager underdog. 

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Notre Dame at Virginia on November 13.

Notre Dame vs Virginia odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Notre Dame opened as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday, a mark that rose to -5.5 by Monday morning and spent some of the week at -6.0 at some books. By week’s end, it had settled firmly at -5.5. The total opened at 64.5 and stayed there throughout the week.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Notre Dame vs Virginia picks

• Notre Dame -5.5 (-110)
• Under 64.5 (-110)

Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 6:00 .m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Notre Dame vs Virginia game info

• Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Notre Dame vs Virginia betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Notre Dame: Kyle Hamilton S (Out), Avery Davis WR (Out), Joe Wilkins WR (Out), C’Bo Flemister RB (Out).
Virginia: Brennan Armstrong QB (Questionable), Mike Hollins RB (Questionable), Wayne Taulapapa RB (Questionable), Billy Kemp WR (Questionable), Adebio Atariwa DL (Out), Justin Duenkel K (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four and 6-1 ATS in its last seven. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Virginia.

Notre Dame vs Virginia predictions

Notre Dame -5.5 (-110)

There is no need to overthink this handicap. There is value to be had, simply due to the uncertainty surrounding Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong. Two weeks ago, the prolific passer suffered an apparent ribs injury at BYU, gesturing toward the sideline in pain while trying to play through it. Eventually, Armstrong ended up on the sideline.

With an idle week in the interim, he has had a chance to heal up, but perhaps not enough. Armstrong’s status this weekend remains very cloudy.

If he plays, then the Cavaliers offense — one of the nation’s most potent, leading the country in total yards per game — could turn this into a shootout and any Irish edge could hinge on the ability to avoid a garbage time Virginia touchdown. Roughly speaking, that would be a 50/50 guess, a la most games.

If Armstrong does not play, though, then the Cavaliers’ offense will struggle against an underrated defense that has kept Notre Dame on the fringes of the College Football Playoff conversation. Suddenly, the Irish would likely run away with this game.

Any college football fan should want Armstrong to play, simply to see more enjoyable football, and basing a handicap around the possibility that a star may not play is far from the most enlightening tactic, but that does not mean it is wrong. Taking value where it is available is the crux of long-term success in this racket.

Against Armstrong, Notre Dame should cover that 5.5-point spread about half the time. Without him, that half jumps magnitudes. That alone should make this a clear decision.

Under 64.5 (-110)

Not only should that same logic apply, but the Irish defense should also be given some deference. Giving up 34 points to North Carolina may be alarming on the surface, but that was actually a field goal below the Tar Heels’ average, and Notre Dame was still upset about that performance.

All but two Irish opponents have scored less than their average against Notre Dame, and only one since the season opener. Those six that scored less than their average did so by 9.9 points per game.

The Cavaliers average 38.9 points per game — with Armstrong, let’s remember. Dropping that to 28 or 29 would mean Notre Dame needs to reach 35 or more to cash the Over. Even the improved up-tempo Irish offense has done that only once since the season opener.

And again, that is if Armstrong plays. Without him, it would be hard to imagine Virginia reaching 28.

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