A massive SEC West showdown early in the season could set the tone for these two programs for the remainder of the campaign as the LSU Tigers and Mississippi Rebels are set to clash this evening.
The Rebels took a tough loss last week at Alabama, while the Tigers were able to sneak out a close home win over Arkansas. Can the Tigers take early control of the SEC West and cover the spread in the college football odds on the road?
Here are my free college football picks for LSU vs. Mississippi at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS on Saturday, September 30.
LSU vs Mississippi best odds
LSU vs Mississippi picks and predictions
LSU started the season with a tough loss to Florida State on a neutral site in a game that was never close. However, they have bounced back nicely with consecutive SEC wins over Mississippi State and Arkansas. These games are more telling to what to expect in this matchup with Ole Miss than the Florida State game.
Last season in this matchup with several of the same key players that will be in this matchup, Ole Miss jumped out to a 17-3 lead before getting destroyed 42-3 in the rest of the game. Quarterback Jayden Daniels threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 121 yards and three touchdowns for the Tigers.
Thus far this season, Daniels has 1,296 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air with only two interceptions. He also has 193 yards rushing and two touchdowns. This has led the Tigers to hold a Top 10 scoring offense, the seventh-ranked offense in total yards, and fourth-best offense in first downs gained.
The Rebels defense has been decent this season, but still ranks 61st in yards allowed. Last week, it allowed Alabama to total 356 total yards and Jalen Milroe to complete 17 of 21 passes despite his struggles with accuracy this season. Daniels will be a completely different beast to face.
Ole Miss also has had some issues on special teams. They have allowed two blocked kicks and a blocked punt. They also rank 129th in the nation in net punt yards. Field position is something they cannot afford to give up to these Tigers who converted 15 of 21 red zone possessions into touchdowns.
This is going to be a big game for Daniels and LSU much like last year, where he was able to attack both through the air on the ground. It will be a tough road environment at night, but the Tigers have shown they can handle it, winning four of their past five SEC road games. LSU to cover is my best bet of the game.
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My best bet: LSU -2.5 (-112 at DraftKings | +133 with profit boost)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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LSU vs Mississippi same-game parlay
LSU -2.5
Jayden Daniels anytime TD
Jayden Daniels Over 280.5 passing yards
The Tigers will be able to put up plenty of points in this game and Daniels is going to be a big part of it. That gives us great opportunities for a same game parlay.
Last year, Daniels was able to score three touchdowns on the ground against Ole Miss. He also has two rushing touchdowns already this season. I think we will see another one for Daniels in this game.
The Rebels are currently giving up 226.2 passing yards per game despite not facing any great passing offenses. Daniels is averaging 338.2 passing yards per game this season. This game will trend closer to Daniels’ average than Ole Miss’s average.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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LSU vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis
LSU also has a huge advantage in staying on the field on offense. Ole Miss ranks 106th in third-down percentage at 35.4%. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 5th at 58.0%. Ole Miss also ranks 129th in time of possession. The Rebels defense will wear down and LSU will run away late.
Understandably, the total is extremely high in this game at 67.5 points. Last season, this game saw 65 points scored. The Tigers average 42.8 points per game and the Rebels average 42.0 points. However, this total is too high for my liking.
The Rebels struggled to score last week with only 10 points. They also are mediocre in the red zone with 11 touchdowns and four field goals in 19 attempts. It will take a lot of Ole Miss scoring for the Over to hit here and I just do not trust them enough.
LSU vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Ole Miss has hit the Team Total Under in their last three games at home. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Mississippi.
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LSU vs Mississippi game info
| Location: | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, September 30, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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