Who better to take the field at Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock tonight at 8 p.m. ET (FOX) than Top 25 foes Houston and Texas Tech?
Though the Red Raiders are a 7.5-point favorite and known for their defense, my Houston vs. Texas Tech combos and college football picks expect both offenses to deliver fireworks on Friday, Sept. 18.
Best Houston vs Texas Tech combos
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Houston vs Texas Tech combo
As I broke down in my Houston vs. Texas Tech prediction, we can look at this matchup with slightly more reliable data than usual this early in the season thanks to a common opponent in Oregon State.
Both teams struggled to contain the Beavers' passing attack in their wins. Braden Atkinson threw for 376 yards and scored two total touchdowns against Houston before racking up 413 yards and two passing TDs against Texas Tech.
Clearly, both secondaries are struggling to start the season, which should lead to a surprisingly high-scoring game. Neither defense is ranked in the Top 40 in EPA per pass, and both have a clear flaw. The Cougars are 96th in early-down EPA per play while the Red Raiders rank 112th in third/fourth down success (60%).
However, Texas Tech has the better defense (ranked 11th by SP+... Houston's is 44th), and its front seven should force Conner Weigman into enough mistakes for a decisive win. Weigman finished Top 20 in the Power Four in turnover-worthy play rate last season (3.9%).
Texas Tech covering is among my Friday night football best bets this week.
Houston vs Texas Tech player prop combo
In my college football Top 25 predictions, I ranked the Cougars and Red Raiders' showdown as the No. 2 must-watch game on the slate because of its importance in the Big 12 race and the potential for a shootout.
The Cougars are just 81st in EPA per play on defense and sit outside the Top 50 in available yards percentage (44.4%). Will Hammond should be able to take advantage of Houston's D behind one of the country's best offensive lines (five pressures allowed in two games).
Hammond is Top 20 in the country in adjusted completion percentage (82.5%) and has fed running back J'Koby Williams. Williams' dual-threat ability will be key to finding the end zone; he leads the Red Raiders in rushing yards (187) and receptions (10).
Meanwhile, the most talented playmaker taking the field tonight is Amare Thomas, who is currently Top 20 in the Power Four in YAC (101) and first-down receptions (8). The Cougars wideout is averaging 87.3 receiving yards per game over his last 12 games.
- Combos: 0-4, -2 units
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