The Friday college football slate may be thin, but all three matchups feature Top 25 teams, including one of Week 3's best games in Houston vs. Texas Tech.
While the No. 22 Cougars' matchup against the No. 13 Red Raiders headlines my Week 3 Friday night football picks and college football picks, my favorite play involves backing Oregon to find its wings again against one of the worst FCS teams in the country.
Week 3 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Miamivs  Wake Forest |
⬆️ o56.5 | 50% |
 Houston vs  Texas Tech |
-7.5 |
49% |
 Portland Statevs  Oregon |
-57.5 |
50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Miami vs Wake Forest: ⬆️ Over 56.5
Miami's offense already put on a show on the road against an ACC team earlier this season, dropping 45 on Stanford in Week 1. That performance skyrocketed Darian Mensah to the top of the Heisman Trophy odds, and he should add to his resume against Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons' defense looks like a major concern this season after allowing 36 points last week in a double-OT win over a Purdue offense that ranked 123rd in scoring last year (18.8 PPG). This Wake Forest D sits outside the Top 80 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and third/fourth down success, while Miami leads the country in offensive success rate (62.5%).
Meanwhile, Wake should do some scoring of its own with Miami down its top two cornerbacks, Xavier Lucas and OJ Frederique Jr., and Gio Lopez sitting Top 20 nationally in QBR (83.4).
With Mensah and Malachi Toney doing the bulk of the scoring here, I only like the Over at 56.5 or better.
Houston vs Texas Tech: Texas Tech -7.5
The Lone Star State is known for football under the Friday night lights, and though Texas Tech isn't thrilled about potentially taking away from high school attendance, it's a must-watch matchup (it's No. 2 on my Week 3 watchability rankings in my college football Top 25 predictions).
But despite this being one of only three Top 25 matchups in Week 3, the Red Raiders are built to pull away and cover in the second half. Texas Tech boasts a massive advantage in the trenches, with a loaded front seven leading a defense that is fourth nationally in early-down EPA per play.
If Tech can slow Houston on first and second down, specifically its zone run game, it will put Conner Weigman into obvious passing situations where Shiel Wood's pass rush can pin its ears back (33 pressures in two games). Weigman has struggled with pressure throughout his career, ranking Top 20 in the Power Four in turnover-worthy play rate last season (3.9%).
Tech should be able to build a lead and lean on its veteran O-line to pave the way for its three-headed running back room. I'm expecting the Red Raiders to win somewhere in the ballpark of 33-24.
Portland State vs. Oregon: Oregon -57.5
Oregon's upset loss to Oklahoma State last week gives me more faith in the Ducks covering this spread. With all the talk of Dante Moore's tells and Oregon being the most overrated college football national championship odds contender, Dan Lanning will want to embarrass Portland State.
It wouldn't be the first time, either. The Ducks beat the Vikings 81-7 in 2023 and had 729 total yards. And Portland State, which is ranked 293rd by SP+, hasn't improved since then. Since 2023, Portland State is 9-28 and has lost to five FBS opponents by an average of 47.8 points, including to two P4 opponents by an average of 71.5 points.
For all of Oregon's struggles last week, this is still a potential College Football Playoff team ranked Top 10 nationally in available yards percentage on both offense (59.4%) and defense (34.7%). The Ducks should win this game by 60+.
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