After a second straight loss in ACC play, Louisville looks to get back on track when it hosts Florida State at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky., on Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The Cardinals are 4.5-point home favorites, but my Florida State vs. Louisville prediction and college football picks expect the Seminoles' offense to take advantage of one of the country's worst defenses.
Who will win Florida State vs Louisville: Florida State +4.5
Florida State is coming off a narrative-changing victory after beating Virginia by 31 points. The Seminoles have now covered in each of their last two games against FBS opponents, showcasing one of the country's best run games.
With Ashton Daniels at QB and Ousmane Kromah at running back, FSU is 12th nationally in EPA per rush and 17th in rush success rate (49.7%). That could be a problem for a Louisville defense that's been one of the worst in the Power Four, allowing the 14th-most yards per game in the country (423).
Daniels and Kromah have combined for 755 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in five games, and if they get going on the ground, Florida State can turn this into a shootout on the road.
I like FSU at +3.5 or better.
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TOP PICK
Florida State vs Louisville Over/Under pick: Over 59.5
Louisville has an offense that looks capable of winning the ACC and a defense that looks capable of losing every game against a quality opponent.
In four FBS games, Louisville has averaged 33.5 points per game and allowed 33.2 ppg. The Cardinals have hit the Over in three of those games, and I like them to do it again with a total of 60.5 or better.
With Lincoln Kienholz expected to be healthy for Louisville, he should keep the offense humming. The Cardinals rank top 25 nationally in offensive success rate (49.7%), and Kienholz has accounted for 15 touchdowns and a 77.2 QBR.
Kienholz, along with running back Isaac Brown (and Keyjuan Brown if he plays), should push a Florida State defense that's 98th in rush success rate (46.9%) and 93rd in net adjusted EPA per play.
COVERS INTEL: Louisville's defense is 73rd nationally in success rate (44.3%) while Florida State's offense ranks eighth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.Florida State vs Louisville combo
Louisville's defense is the reason it's already lost three games this season and why it's failed to cover in two straight ACC matchups. Louisville doesn't create negative plays on defense, ranking third-last in the ACC in havoc rate (13.2%) and 88th in net EPA per play.
With Kromah and Daniels carrying FSU's ground attack, they will be able to break loose for big plays and approach 30+ points. Meanwhile, FSU has defensive issues of its own, ranking 92nd in available yards percentage (52.1%).
A high-scoring game should lead to a back-and-forth final frame.
Florida State vs Louisville combo
- Florida State +4.5
- Over 59.5
- 4Q Over 14.5
- Top picks: 11-8, +1.89 units
- Combos: 4-15, -2.64 units
Florida State vs Louisville odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Florida State +4.5 | Louisville -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (51%) | Under 59.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Florida State 61% | Louisville 39%
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Florida State vs Louisville weather
Weather isn't expected to be a factor on Friday night in Louisville.
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Florida State vs Louisville trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in Louisville's last six games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs. Louisville.
How to watch Florida State vs Louisville
| Location | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida State vs Louisville latest injuries
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