Week 4 is when conference play really starts to get underway in college football, and we’ve got some matchups with massive implications right out of the gate.
Who will stake their claim to the Big 12 when Texas Tech visits Utah? Can John Mateer and Oklahoma prove they are for real in a matchup against a much-improved Auburn team? Those matchups highlight my college football best bets for this week.
And for even more Week 4 college football picks, check out my guy Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 4
Texas Tech vs. 
Utah u56.5 (-110)
Oklahoma -6.5 (-122)
Sam Leavitt o209.5 pass yds (-114)
Texas Tech-Utah Under 56.5
The biggest game in college football this week takes place on Saturday morning in Salt Lake City, where the Utah Utes host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a game that should have a massive impact on the Big 12 title.
Texas Tech and Utah are the current favorites to win the conference title, so whoever wins this matchup will be set up well to get to the Big 12 title game. And I’m betting it will be an intense and relatively low-scoring game.
The Red Raiders went out this offseason and bought the best defense money could by. The defensive line is particularly scary. It’s full of NFL talent with David Bailey and Romello Height leading the way at this point.
Meanwhile, Kyle Whittingham continues to pump out strong defensive teams at Utah. This year they rank third in defensive EPA margin through their first three games.
And while Texas Tech has put up some good numbers offensively, the best defense they have faced at this point is Oregon State, which ranks 124th in defensive EPA.
Mix in the factor that Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the hardest environments in college football to go in and win, and this game has all the makings of a hard-hitting and low-scoring affair.
So, of course I’m going to be on the Under here. Particularly with the number at 56.5. It feels almost five points too high.
Oklahoma -6.5
My love for John Mateer and the Oklahoma Sooners does not stop in Week 4. This week, they welcome the 3-0 Auburn Tigers to Norman, who bring a familiar face along with them.
The Sooners have been very impressive through the first three weeks of the season. Mateer has been everything Oklahoma could have asked for and more, throwing for 944 yards and five touchdowns while rumbling for another 161 yards and four scores on the ground.
Auburn’s defense has been good to this point, but they haven’t come across anything like Mateer, and were torched through the air by Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson in their opener. And we’ve already seen Mateer perform well against a good defense in Oklahoma’s win over Michigan in Week 2.
But the main reason I like the Sooners in this spot is their defense. This unit looks like it might be the best in the country. They enter this game leading the nation in defensive success rate and are fourth in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents.
They’ll also have a unique knowledge of how to slow down Auburn’s offense. That’s because Tigers’ QB Jackson Arnold spent last season under center for the Sooners. So, if any coach can cook up some schemes to mess with Arnold, it’s Brent Venables.
While Arnold has been solid this season, the best defense he has faced belongs to South Alabama. Veneables and the Sooners D will overwhelm the Tigers' offense, and Mateer will do the rest to let Oklahoma cover this number.
Sam Leavitt Over 209.5 passing yards
Baylor Bears QB Sawyer Robertson has been one of my favorite players in college football for the past year or so, and I’ve said there are worse bets out there than him to win the Heisman Trophy at +3300.
However, the problem is that Robertson doesn’t have a choice but to be great this season. That’s because this Bears defense stinks. Like, offensively smelly.
Baylor has allowed at least 38 points in both games they’ve played vs. FBS opponents (Auburn and SMU) and enters this week ranked 99th in opponent yards per play and 124th in defensive success rate.
That brings me to this week’s matchup against the Arizona State Sun Devils. Now, it’s been a tough start to the season for QB Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devils offense. But I like backing Leavitt in this spot.
Leavitt is completing just 58% of his passes and was held to a dreadful 82 yards passing in a gut-wrenching loss to Mississippi State. But he entered this season with a bunch of hype about potentially being a first-round pick in next April’s NFL Draft, and threw for 2,885 yards with 24 touchdowns last season.
So, I think we’re getting some value on his passing yards prop which is sitting at a modest 209.5. He went Over that in nine of his 13 games played last season.
Baylor ranks 92 in EPA per dropback and 127th in opponent yards per attempt. Leavitt finds his form here and goes Over this number.
My Triple Option column is 4-5 so far this season for -1.72 units.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 4
Texas Tech-Utah Under 56.5
Oklahoma -6.5
Sam Leavitt Over 209.5 passing yards
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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