Is "The U" back?
With a reinvigorated Carson Beck under center, the Miami Hurricanes look like one of the best teams in the country through the first few weeks of the season, and they can cement that status with a big win over the rival Florida Gators.
Meanwhile, it’s been a disastrous start for the Gators, and my Florida vs. Miami predictions explain why the Hurricanes will have the Gators in rough waters once again.
Check out my college football picks for this epic in-state rivalry, set to kick off at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, September 20.
Florida vs Miami prediction
Florida vs Miami best bet: Miami -7.5 (-108)
Everyone knew the Miami Hurricanes had a talented roster heading into this season. The big question was: What version of Carson Beck were they going to get?
The answer, through three games at least, might be the best version of Beck yet, and that makes the Hurricanes a legitimate threat to win the national title.
Beck has thrown for 812 yards and seven touchdowns, and leads the nation in completion percentage. He plays behind an NFL-caliber offensive line and has excellent weapons at his disposal.
Then there is the defense.
The line is also filled with NFL talent, led by Reuen Bain Jr., and they will be a handful for a struggling Florida Gators offense.
DJ Lagway has looked overwhelmed through the first three games of the season. He’s throwing for just 4.6 yards per attempt and has more interceptions than touchdowns. As a result, the Gators enter this game 1-2 and 99th in offensive EPA margin.
The losses include a stunning 18-16 defeat at the hands of other in-state rival, the USF Bulls, as 18-point favorites in the Swamp. The same Bulls team that Miami just crushed 49-12 last week.
Miami just has edges all over the field, and as long as Mario Cristobal stays out of his team’s way, the Hurricanes shouldn’t have trouble covering this number.
Florida vs Miami same-game parlay
The Hurricanes are going to be able to attack the Gators however they want, and their balance is going to be what makes them hard to stop.
On the ground, it starts with Mark Fletcher Jr., the Canes’ top back. He’s already rushed for 272 yards and four touchdowns this season and he’s a home-run hitter, going at 6.5 yards per carry. He went for 66 yards against a very good Notre Dame defense to open the year.
Florida’s run defense play-to-play is solid, but they’ve been gashed for big gains. Fletcher does that here to go Over this number.
Meanwhile, Beck has some great weapons to throw to. True freshman Malachi Toney is getting a lot of love this season, but CJ Daniels has become Beck’s go-to red zone target. Standing 6-foot-2 and weighing in at 205 pounds, that’s no surprise.
Daniels has scored three times already this season, and I love the odds for him to do so again in this matchup.
Florida vs Miami SGP
- Miami -7.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 72.5 rushing yards
- CJ Daniels anytime TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Florida offense falters
- Adding a negative correlation play for a big payout here, as I just don't see Florida doing enough scoring early to send this Over.
- Florida has scored just 26 total points in games vs. FBS teams this season.
Florida vs Miami SGP
- Miami -7.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 72.5 rushing yards
- CJ Daniels anytime TD
- Under 26.5 1H
Florida vs Miami odds
- Spread: Florida +7.5 | Miami -7.5
- Moneyline: Florida +235 | Miami -295
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Florida vs Miami trend to know
Florida has only hit the 1H Over in four of their last 13 games for -6.60 Units and a -44% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Miami.
How to watch Florida vs Miami
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Saturday, September 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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