A new betting market was created a couple of years ago when the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, as many sportsbooks now offer “To Make the Playoffs” odds.
Last week, using my power ratings, I gave you my favorite Group of 6 value bets to reach the CFP.
This week, I’m looking at my favorite college football picks to make it out of the Power 4 conferences.
Power 4 Value Bets to Make the CFP
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Georgia to make the playoffs |
-220 |
 Texas Tech to make the playoffs |
-160 |
 BYU to make the playoffs |
+420 |
 Penn State to make the playoffs |
+450 |
Georgia to make the playoffs
My power ratings are currently projecting 10.1 wins for the Georgia Bulldogs.
I project Georgia to be favored in all 12 games by at least a field goal, and nine of those games by double-digits. Unlike the past couple of seasons, Georgia does not play likely preseason No. 1 Texas, and I expect both Alabama and Mississippi to take a step back this season.
When tying up bankroll for several months, you often want a trusted commodity with low variance. Georgia has not lost three games in a regular season since 2016, which was Kirby Smart’s first season.
Speaking of Smart, he returns for his 11th season in Athens along with both of his coordinators, who have been there several seasons.
Georgia ranks No. 8 in Bill Connelly's returning production, which is the best mark in the Smart era. The Bulldogs return starting QB Gunner Stockton and 16 of their 21 defenders who logged at least 150 snaps last year.
Even in back-to-back “down seasons” compared to recent Georgia teams, the Bulldogs have managed to win the SEC Championship each year. I think this year’s team is better and has an easier slate.
If college football always had a 12-team playoff, the Bulldogs would have qualified every year since 2017. I think they are extremely likely to make it in 2026 and they are not being priced that way.
Texas Tech to make the playoffs
Even with the seven-point downgrade from last year’s team (which accounts for Brendan Sorsby not playing), my power ratings still project the Texas Tech Red Raiders to be favored in every game this season by double digits.
The Red Raiders are projected to win 10.6 games, which is the second highest mark in the country behind Notre Dame. However, Texas Tech “only” has the 8th best chance to make the playoffs. That’s where the value lies.
The Red Raiders avoid BYU and Utah (the next best teams in the Big 12) in conference play and get dark horse Big 12 contender Houston at home.
FanDuel has posted a line on the Houston game, and the Red Raiders are still favored by 12.5 points. That could be Texas Tech’s toughest game of the season.
Texas Tech brings back 12 starters from last year (tied for the most in the Big 12) and welcomes 10 transfers who were full-time starters at the FBS level last year. Its 22 combined returning starters are tied for the most in college football.
If Texas Tech were to go 11-1 in the regular season and lose the Big 12 Championship game, I still think the committee would rank them ahead of most 9-3 SEC and Big Ten teams. The committee showed last year that championship weekend did not mean much (see Alabama).
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
More college football resources from Covers
- College Football National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
- Best college football betting sites
- College football futures
BYU to make the playoffs
If Texas Tech were to slip up this season, or if the Big 12 were to get two teams in the playoffs, the BYU Cougars are the next-most likely team to make it out of the Big 12.
It should come as no surprise, considering the Cougars are 23-4 the last two seasons. BYU should be just as good this year as they return 12 starters and rank No. 18 in Bill Connelly’s returning production.
The committee values wins over losses, and right now my power ratings are projecting BYU with the 10th highest win total of all Power 4 teams.
Currently, my power ratings are projecting them to be favorites in 10 games this season with a home game against Notre Dame and a road trip to Utah being the exceptions. Nine of those favorite roles are by at least seven points.
If BYU were to win 11 games again, I think the committee would give them the benefit of the doubt, unlike last season.
Penn State to make the playoffs
If you’re looking for a small bet to make on a long shot, I don’t mind this price on the Penn State Nittany Lions.
They have a similar makeup as Indiana did in 2024 when they made the playoffs. New head coach Matt Campbell brings 13 starters with him from Iowa State, not unlike what Curt Cignetti had with James Madison transfers.
The Nittany Lions also have an advantageous schedule that sees them avoid the three best teams in the Big Ten in Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. Penn State could be favored in as many as 10 games and they don’t have a single game where they would be more than a 5-point underdog in my power ratings.
While I tend to think 9-3 is the most likely record for Penn State this season (my ratings project 9.3), a 10-2 Big Ten team is very likely heading to the playoffs. That would only require Penn State to take care of business in all the games they are favored to do so.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
