Now the fun begins in earnest. A few notable games each week were our appetizer, but as conference play begins, our college football best bets enter their true joys. What would you rather, Indiana State vs. Indiana or Illinois vs. Indiana?
Michigan routing Central Michigan serves to create a new round of Connor Stalions jokes, but otherwise, we will all enjoy Michigan vs. Nebraska.
And getting to a schedule full of meaningful games, all with a few games of actual data on every team, should provide the solid ground needed to right the record here, last week’s 1-4 and -3.16 units dropping the season record to 7-13 and -6.46.
These Week 4 college football predictions focus on the Big Ten more than intended, but that is going to become a focus this season, while the top three teams in FanDuel’s national championship odds are all from the Big Ten …
College football predictions Week 4
Indiana -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Oregon Team Total Over 45.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
UNLV -2.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Nebraska moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)
Darian Mensah Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+134 at FanDuel)
Indiana -6
We have seen Illinois’s weaknesses. We have not seen Indiana’s.
The Hoosiers undoubtedly have some, but they have been so ruthlessly efficient that faith needs to be put in them anew in 2025. Walloping Kennesaw State and FCS-level Indiana State is not necessarily all that impressive, but do you know what would be unquestionably unimpressive? Not walloping Kennesaw State and FCS-level Indiana State.
Instead, Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza has completed 72.4% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt and nine touchdowns with no interceptions. No matter who the opponents were, that stat line stands out. It is how Indiana ranks No. 5 in quality drive rate, getting into scoring territory on more than 70% of its possessions, per cfb-graphs.com.
That consistency and efficiency should worry Illinois’s offense, the better half of the team, if also seemingly the unrelated half in this sentence. But the Illini need to keep up with the Hoosiers’ efficiency, and Illinois has shown a struggle in that regard.
Duke found defensive havoc on 18 of 73 snaps against the Illini offense, a rate that implies Indiana could put Illinois on its heels a couple times, and only a couple times should be enough for Mendoza to cover this spread with his efficiency.
Illinois vs. Indiana, primetime NBC, and I will be most watching the Illinois offense vs. the Indiana defense.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 18, 2025
In some large part because I view the Hoosiers' offense as a relative inevitability on Saturday night. https://t.co/IwSeYAP3m6 pic.twitter.com/F1neCCKHfG
Oregon Team Total Over 45.5
Oregon State has a special teams problem that is escalating blowouts in a way that advanced metrics usually chalk up to variance and marginal worries.
This is an anecdotal way of framing that, but when Texas Tech beat Oregon State, 45-14, last week, it was less dominant on a down-to-down basis than Illinois’s 38-0 win against Western Michigan and significantly less dominant than Ohio State’s 37-9 win against Ohio.
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 15, 2025
Net Success Rates in Week 3 pic.twitter.com/Q7hj8Exhp9
Why?
Because so much came from the Beavers’ coughing up field position: Three Texas Tech touchdown drives covered 55 yards or fewer. Furthermore, four of the Red Raiders’ touchdowns were explosive plays.
These types of strikes do not necessarily show up quickly in advanced numbers. But they will show up quickly for Oregon. The Ducks are finding a form that should worry everyone in the country. They will default to the 40s against their falling in-state rivals.
UNLV -2.5
Do not yet write off Miami (OH) and Chuck Martin. The RedHawks may well find their groove in MAC play. Martin has made that a habit.
But that thought alone suggests Martin is not going to worry much about this home game against UNLV. Even if he does, Miami has not shown anything to inspire confidence this season.
Neither Wisconsin nor Rutgers is particularly good. Losing by at least three scores to each suggests the DeQuann Finn experiment is not going to work for Martin.
Advanced numbers all agree: These RedHawks might be only decent by MAC standards, and that equates to bad by any other standard.
Meanwhile, UNLV could again become a trendy pick to win the Mountain West and find its way into the College Football Playoff. Dan Mullen has that bigger thought to play for right now.
Starting 3-0 outright and 2-0 against the spread against FBS competition has underscored the quality of the program Mullen took over, and it needs to be remembered that his problem was always recruiting, never Saturdays.
Expect UNLV’s offense to hum, particularly on dropbacks. And Miami has no defensive quality to rely upon to slow that down.
Nebraska moneyline
Let’s keep this short for the sake of emphasizing the clip below.
Michigan’s passing defense has been exploited twice already this season, even if the world hardly noticed the first time.
The Wolverines now face one of the most efficient, most consistent, and most frequent passing attacks in the country. This is the kind of weakness in a specifically problematic matchup to ensure that even Nebraska can beat a Top 25 opponent for the first time since 2016, a 27-game losing streak.
When New Mexico threw the ball relatively well against Michigan, it was a worry.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 18, 2025
And Oklahoma proved that true.
Now, the Wolverines face one of the most efficient, most consistent and most frequent passing offenses in the country at Nebraska. Just look at @statsowar's numbers. https://t.co/3PqWPmEWbO pic.twitter.com/DNdVcTBykp
Darian Mensah Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for three touchdowns in two of three games this season, the exception still featuring a pair of scoring passes. And now he faces a surprisingly atrocious passing defense.
North Carolina State does decently well on a consistent basis defending the pass, ranking No. 30 in the country in defensive success rate against the pass. But it still ranks No. 95 in expected points added per dropback against.
Ponder that for a quick moment: Opponents do not find regular success through the air against the Wolfpack, but they do find overall success. That oddity is the result of explosive plays.
Mensah should capitalize. Especially as Duke emphasizes the pass this season, throwing 10.5% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, No. 13 in the country.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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