The college football season rolls into Week 9 as we get closer to the first CFP rankings of the season. Every game has added importance, particularly in the uber-crowded SEC.
This week, my Triple Option college football best bets highlight a trio of SEC matchups. Is Vanderbilt still being undervalued? Did Texas turn back into a pumpkin already? And can LSU get out of its own way?
For even more Week 9 college football picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 9
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Vanderbilt -2.5 |
-120 |
 Mississippi State +7.5 |
-122 |
 LSU team total Under 23.5 |
-108 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +542 |
Vanderbilt -2.5
I’m getting tired of seeing the constant disrespect of the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Diego Pavia and Vandy bounced back following a tough loss to Alabama by taking out Brian Kelly’s LSU Tigers in a convincing 31-24 win last week.
The Commodores continue to roll on offense. Pavia has been electric, throwing for 1,569 yards with 15 touchdowns while rushing for 438 yards and four scores. He’s got elite weapons at his disposal, including do-it-all running back Sedrick Alexander and elite tight end Eli Stowers.
Vandy enters this week’s SEC matchup against the Missouri Tigers, ranked second in the country in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate.
But the underrated part of this Vanderbilt team is its defense. The Commodores are a respectable 39th in opponent EPA per play and 44th in defensive success rate.
Yes, the Tigers have proven to be a solid football team. But this spread is only this close because of these teams’ respective results against Alabama. Mizzou only lost by three but was at home, while Vandy fell 31-14 in Tuscaloosa in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests.
Getting the Commodores at home laying less than a field goal feels like a gift. This Vanderbilt team is well coached, has more heart than just about anyone, and are led by a QB who would run through a wall for his teammates. Lay the points with Pavia and the Commodores.
Mississippi State +7.5
Boy, it sure didn’t take long for Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns to turn back into a pumpkin.
Sure, they won last week against Kentucky, but it certainly didn’t feel like it. The Longhorns followed up their huge win over rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry with an uninspiring 16-13 overtime win over the Wildcats.
Arch Manning completed just 44% of his passes for 132 yards as the Longhorns' offense continues to struggle.
Now, you can say this was a perfect letdown spot after the win over their biggest rival. But not if this has been a repeated pattern all season. And while this Kentucky team has a solid defense, it's not exactly one of the elite units we have seen from them in the past.
Texas enters this week’s matchup with the Mississippi State Bulldogs ranked 92nd in the country in offensive success rate. And the Bulldogs are 45th in the country in EPA margin. They are also 22nd in offensive success rate and 60th in defensive success rate.
That’s all with QB Blake Shapen not playing his best football this season. So, there is room for improvement there.
Yet the Bulldogs are still getting more than a touchdown at home, where cowbells will be rattling at Wade Davis Stadium on Saturday. Texas has given me no reason to believe that the offense can be successful and cover this number.
LSU team total Under 23.5
We are in a new era of college football, where buyout numbers don’t seem to bother Athletic Directors anymore. So, if you’re on the hot seat as a head coach, your chances to cool it off seem much more limited in 2025.
Cut to Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers. This was supposed to be a big year for Kelly and the Bayou Bengals; QB Garrett Nussmeier returned for his senior season, the defense was no longer a problem, and they opened the year with a massive win over Clemson.
But all of those things don’t look as great as the season has gone on. Couple that with losses to Mississippi and Vanderbilt in the last three weeks, and Kelly’s seat is one of the hottest in the country heading into this week’s matchup with the undefeated Texas A&M Aggies.
The biggest problem for LSU has been its offense. Nussmeier has been fine, if unspectacular, but the offensive line is struggling, resulting in the offense being one-dimensional and ineffective.
The Tigers rank 65th in offensive success rate, which includes a 119th-place ranking in success rate on rushes, and scoring has ben a big problem as a result.
LSU has played six FBS opponents this season and averaged just 20.5 points per game, never scoring more than 24. That 24 came last week against Vanderbilt, which included an incredibly lucky 62-yard touchdown pass to Zavion Thomas.
LSU’s team total is sitting at 23.5 for this matchup against an Aggies team that ranks ninth in defensive EPA per play and 21st in defensive success rate. I don’t expect LSU to suddenly to kick it into high gear in one of its toughest matchups of the season.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 9
Vanderbilt -2.5
Mississippi State +7.5
LSU team total Under 23.5
My weekly Triple Option column is 11-13 this season for -2.88 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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