Texas looks to stay in the SEC Championship hunt as the Longhorns travel to Starkville on Saturday to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
The Longhorns escaped Lexington with a win last week, but now take on another team desperate for a conference win. The Bulldogs haven’t ticked the win column in over two years, but this could be the opportunity after narrowly losing at The Swamp.
Arch Manning’s struggles are likely to continue and I explain why in my Texas vs. Mississippi State predictions & college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
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Texas vs Mississippi State prediction
Texas vs Mississippi State best bet: Texas Team Total Under 27.5 (-125 at FanDuel)
Cowbells are a part of the public lexicon thanks to Saturday Night Live. Mention cowbell to most folks, and you chuckle as you remember Christopher Walken demanding more of it.
For SEC opponents, there’s nothing funny about those damn things. A friend of mine, a former Kentucky offensive lineman, often says that Starkville is the most difficult place he ever played due to the incessant noise that just makes your head feel like there’s a hive of bees inside it.
I’m not sure Arch Manning will ever want to hear the word cowbell after this weekend. That’s because I’m expecting him to collapse under the pressure of another SEC road game.
The Swamp got to him. He led just three scoring drives in 13 possessions, tossing a pair of picks as the Longhorns lost to the Gators. He should’ve lost again last week at Kentucky, where he completed just 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards and routinely missed open throws.
Manning’s inaccuracy could be costly in this one. The Mississippi State Bulldogs rank sixth in interceptions forced, having snagged a pass in all seven games.
When they get the ball, the Bulldogs run the ball nearly 3% more than expected in part because they rank 22nd in EPA/rush and have the highest success rate in college football. That will help shorten the game.
Texas is likely to commit to the run as well. CJ Baxter should return to the backfield, and the Bulldogs are ranked 89th in success rate against the run. But they allow very few explosive runs on the whole.
The Longhorns rank 116th in late-down success, 105th in available yards, and 110th in EPA/pass. And in 32 possessions over the last three games, not counting kneel-down situations, Manning has led just five touchdown drives.
Manning won’t be able to think with those cowbells clanging, and the offense will suffer even more as a result.
Texas vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
Against Kentucky, Parker Livingstone was targeted just three times. Arch Manning missed him on all three attempts, as his accuracy was off throughout the night.
But Livingstone’s production has been dwindling for a while now. He’s topped 35 yards just once in his last five games, catching two passes for 47 yards against Florida.
The absence of safety Michael Taaffe will be a huge blow to the Texas defense. And it’s a key reason why I’m backing the Bulldogs to get the outright upset win. This is a defense that is getting tired, between playing four games away from home in four weeks and being put on the field repeatedly by Manning’s struggles.
The Bulldogs have two burners at wide receiver, which is why they lead the nation with 14 completions of at least 40 yards. Brenan Thompson and Anthony Evans III will come up with enough big plays to lead Mississippi State to its first SEC win in over two years.
Texas vs Mississippi State SGP
- Texas Team Total Under 27.5
- Parker Livingstone Under 37.5 receiving yards
- Mississippi State moneyline
Our deep-ball SGP: Bulldogs burn Longhorns
Texas has allowed just three touchdown passes this season, and they all came on the road. Florida had two of them, and Blake Shapen will likely connect on one of his deep throws to get a score.
Add in the fact that Texas does very well against the run when teams get near the goal line, and his arm will be relied upon even more.
Brenen Thompson is an absolute burner, and he’s coming off a 155-yard performance against Florida. He’s topped this yardage total in all but two games this season, and he’ll have plenty of motivation against the Horns given he began his college career there before transferring to Oklahoma.
Texas vs Mississippi State SGP
- Texas Team Total Under 27.5
- Parker Livingstone Under 37.5 receiving yards
- Mississippi State moneyline
- Blake Shapen Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
- Brenen Thompson Over 52.5 receiving yards
Texas vs Mississippi State odds
- Spread: Texas -7.5 (+100) | Mississippi State +7.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Texas -270 | Mississippi State +220
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Texas vs Mississippi State trend to know
Texas has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Mississippi State.
How to watch Texas vs Mississippi State
| Location | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Saturday, October 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SECN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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