A loss this weekend would not knock the Mississippi Rebels out of the College Football Playoff race outright, but it would make their position rather tenuous.
Similarly, a loss this weekend would only damage the Oklahoma Sooners’ hopes, though given their more daunting remaining schedule, a win would go a longer way for the Sooners.
My Mississippi vs. Oklahoma predictions trust the home favorite for a variety of reasons, none of which are that possible sense of desperation, though real as it may be.
Let's dive into my college football picks before kickoff comes at 12pm ET on Saturday, October 25.
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Mississippi vs Oklahoma prediction
Mississippi vs Oklahoma best bet: Oklahoma -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Do not overthink this.
Mississippi’s roster has appeared flawed all season. A 6-1 outright record does not suddenly gloss over that reality. Blowing a fourth-quarter lead at Georgia in quite a predictable fashion last week furthers that doubt.
The Rebels are 4-1 in one-score games, those wins coming against Washington State, LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky. Perhaps some of those were more genuinely one-score games than others were, but should any of them ever have been that close?
Mississippi is flawed.
Oklahoma is the better team, the home team, enjoys the better quarterback and the better defense, led by arguably the best defensive line in the country. That should make the Sooners closer to touchdown favorites.
Think back two games, before Oklahoma lost to Texas and before Mississippi struggled against Washington State and then lost to Georgia. At that point, ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings would have made the Sooners about 5.5-point favorites against Mississippi.
Since then, both teams have been downgraded by 4.2 points, but should Oklahoma have taken the same drop in perception that Mississippi did when all the Sooners did was lose on a neutral field to their biggest rival before easily covering the spread against South Carolina? No. This is a buy-low moment on Oklahoma.
Enjoying the better team as a buy-low moment is a college football delight.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
Mississippi's defense is a liability, most so against the rush. Georgia beat the Rebels into submission a week ago, and Oklahoma should do the same.
Once Mississippi shows wear, John Mateer will take most advantage.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma SGP
- Oklahoma -5.5
- John Mateer Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Under 54.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Lockdown Sooners Defense
Oklahoma’s defense alone could doom this game to its Under, especially with this number sitting above the key numbers of 51 and 52.
On the other side of the ball, the Sooners' defensive line should notch multiple sacks against Trinidad Chambliss, dooming the whole game's total as a result.
Combining that thought with a John Mateer touchdown should not have as much of an inflationary impact on the same-game parlay payout as it does. Mateer has, after all, scored in four of his six games this season.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma SGP
- Oklahoma -4.5
- John Mateer Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Trinidad Chambliss Under 35.5 rushing yards
- John Mateer touchdown
- Under 54.5
Mississippi vs Oklahoma odds
- Spread: Mississippi +4.5 | Oklahoma -4.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi +164 | Oklahoma -196
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Mississippi vs Oklahoma trend to know
All seven of Oklahoma’s games this season have gone Under their pregame totals and by an average of 11.1 points. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Oklahoma.
How to watch Mississippi vs Oklahoma
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date | Saturday, October 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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