Vanderbilt enter a conference affair against Missouri for Week 9.
Both have just one loss, and both, perhaps one more inexplicably than the other, are looking for a chance to make the College Football Playoff this season.
Here’s how I see it playing out in my Missouri vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
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Missouri vs Vanderbilt prediction
Missouri vs Vanderbilt best bet: Over 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
There’s a lot here. The College GameDay factor for the Vanderbilt Commodores. The aspect of the Missouri Tigers trying to claim their first top-ten road win since beating Georgia.
And the oddity of both teams meeting each other for the first time as ranked teams. This is all “noise” taking away from the analytical assessment pointing squarely to Missouri winning the game. Some of that noise matters, and it has made me pivot slightly from that viewpoint to another: Points.
These offenses are good. They have clear paths to regularly scoring. The exploits of Vandy QB Diego Pavia are well noted, but the offense has quietly turned into a well-rounded unit. Multiple things can be true.
Vandy ranks 4th overall in EPA per rush, and a big part of that is Pavia on the ground. Missouri has done a pretty good job of slowing down QB runs throughout the season.
However, they haven’t been great overall at slowing down traditional runs, ranking just 70th nationally in EPA allowed per rush. I think other runners outside of Pavia can have success in this matchup and give Vandy consistent offense.
On the other side, there are some real concerns for the Commodores, the biggest of which is their pass defense. It ranks in the 100s in EPA allowed, which is in the bottom quadrant of the conference.
Oh yeah, their pass defense ranks in the bottom 10% of the country when it comes to explosiveness allowed. This is a high-tempo Missouri offense that has been humming and creating plenty of explosive plays. I think the Tigers will score in bunches.
Missouri vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay
This goes in keeping with the logic of my best bet. Missouri should win this one outright. Even with all the spectacle surrounding the game, the Tigers are the more complete team.
In addition to their moneyline, I’ll add Pavia to go under what is a fairly high rushing number due to the sack risk the Tigers present.
Missouri vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Over 52.5
- Missouri moneyline
- Diego Pavia Under 58.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Coleman Keeps It Explosive
Expanding our same-game parlay, we open things with Kevin Coleman to go over his receiving total. He’s the most explosive pass catcher for Missouri, averaging a team-best 28.4 EPA on the year.
Given Vandy’s issues containing explosive passing plays, he could go over this number with one throw.
In addition, I’ll take the low number on the Commodores tailback Sedrick Alexander against a rushing defense that has been just okay this season.
Missouri vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Over 52.5
- Missouri moneyline
- Diego Pavia Under 58.5 rushing yards
- Kevin Coleman Over 55.5 receiving yards
- Sedrick Alexander Over 40.5 rushing yards
Missouri vs Vanderbilt odds
- Spread: Missouri +2.5 (-105) | Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Missouri +116 | Vanderbilt -136
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-105) | Under 52.5 (-115)
Missouri vs Vanderbilt trend to know
Missouri has covered the spread in 9 of its last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Vanderbilt.
How to watch Missouri vs Vanderbilt
| Location | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, October 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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