Over the first 89 seasons of Arizona Wildcats football, the program reached double-digit wins just three times.
A Holiday Bowl victory would now give Arizona 10-win seasons in two of the last three years — a meaningful milestone, even if it doesn’t jump off the page.
SMU, meanwhile, entered the final week of the regular season with CFP aspirations, only to see those hopes dashed by a stunning loss at Cal.
My Arizona vs. SMU predictions account for those contrasting motivations and the simple reality that the Wildcats are the superior team.
Read more in my college football picks for Friday, January 2.
Arizona vs SMU predictions for the Holiday Bowl
Who will win the Holiday Bowl?
All SMU had to do was beat Cal, and then it would have been in the ACC title game. All due respect to James Madison, but that scenario would have guaranteed the ACC champion entry into the College Football Playoff.
Instead, the Mustangs lost as 13.5-point favorites.
It is far too likely that SMU has struggled to light a fire for this bowl game. The Mustangs might struggle to show up in San Diego at all after kickoff.
Doubt them in every regard.
Arizona vs SMU best bet: Arizona moneyline (-110)
The opt-out situations in the Holiday Bowl are rather vague, particularly as Arizona head coach Brett Brennan will not confirm any before taking the field.
However, do not expect any particular Wildcats position group to be abandoned, and with a relatively full roster, Arizona is distinctly better than SMU.
That is aside from the motivations that should have the Mustangs still dragging a bit. In particular, the Wildcats’ defense will shut down SMU’s inconsistent offense.
Opponents largely gave up throwing against Arizona this season, doing so at the 10th-lowest relative rate in the country and even less than that as the season progressed. That is what comes from having the No. 14 dropback defense in the country, in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, according to CFB-graphs.com.
SMU throws the ball at the 17th-highest relative rate in the country, in part because its rushing attack fails more than 56% of the time, a number ranking in the bottom half of the country.
In other words, the Mustangs’ need to throw is going to backfire against the Wildcats, and SMU does not have a reliable enough rushing attack to have a Plan B.
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Arizona vs SMU same-game parlay
Arizona’s defense was an asset in its last five games, three of those being such an asset that it reached at least the top 20th percentile of expectations, per CFB-graphs.com.
No wonder the Wildcats’ last four games cashed their Unders and by an average of 9.1 points. That unit should set the tone in the Holiday Bowl.
Arizona vs SMU SGP
- Arizona moneyline
- Under 52.5
Arizona vs SMU game predictions
Arizona vs SMU spread prediction
Taking the moneyline instead of Arizona -1.5 acknowledges that bowl games are more prone to last-minute two-point attempts to win rather than play for a tie.
If the Wildcats took such a risk, they could win without covering the spread.
Arizona vs SMU Over/Under prediction
Quite frankly, it is difficult to see SMU approaching its team total of 26.5.
Such faith in Arizona’s defense lends itself to confidence in the Under 52.5.
Arizona vs SMU odds
- Spread: Arizona -1.5 (-105) | SMU +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Arizona -110 | SMU -105
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Arizona vs SMU trend to know
As Arizona won its last five games outright, it went 4-1 against the spread, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 14.5 points, even including the sole ATS loss. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs SMU.
How to watch Arizona vs SMU
| Location | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, January 2, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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