USC vs California Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears are Good as Golden

The California Golden Bears look to stay hot as they host the USC Trojans tonight at Haas Pavilion. 

Mark Madsen seemingly has this Cal program on the upswing as his squad has been more competitive than the Bears have been in past seasons. They’re on a bit of a roll having won three of their last four games.

Replacing them in the cellar of the conference standings is Andy Enfield’s Trojans, who picked up a 28-point win over Oregon State on Saturday to stop a six-game losing streak. 

Checking out college basketball odds, the Bears are 2.5-point favorites while the total resides at 148.5. 

All eyes will be on Bronny James and the away team, but it’s Cal who has been surging as of late. What’s the best bet for tonight’s battle? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. California to find out.

USC vs California best odds

USC vs California picks and predictions

Andy Enfield has led the USC Trojans to five NCAA Tournament appearances — including three straight — in his 10 years on campus. It’s therefore been a bit of a surprise that his team has fallen out of contention and is one of the Pac-12’s least competitive teams this season. The Trojans are just 9-13 overall and recently lost six straight games before breaking out of their funk with a dominant 82-54 win over Oregon State on Saturday. 

They don’t do a whole lot well on either end of the court, failing to stand out in most statistical categories. At least a backcourt featuring Boogie Ellis (17.3 ppg) and 5-star freshman Isaiah Collier (15.4 ppg) was a bright spot, but that light has dimmed lately as Collier has missed the last six games with a broken hand suffered against Washington State on January 10. 

The good news is that he could be back in the lineup as soon as this week, according to associate head coach Chris Capko. 

The California Golden Bears were one of Division I’s worst teams a year ago, finishing with a 3-29 record so putrid that it nearly defies belief. Enter head coach Mark Madsen from Utah Valley, where he led the Wolverines to back-to-back 20-win seasons, including a 28-9 finish in 2022-23. 

Madsen has already led improvement as the Bears have tripled their win total from a season ago and have been competitive, winning three of their last four games. The first was an outright upset of a red-hot Washington State squad, then they held on for a 73-71 nailbiter over Stanford, were overmatched by Arizona, and most recently bounced back with an impressive 81-66 road victory over Arizona State. 

Texas Tech transfer Jaylon Tyson is second in the Pac-12 in scoring (20 ppg) while big man Fardaws Aimaq averages a double-double with 15.3 ppg and a conference-leading 10.6 rebounds per game. Jalen Cone (14 ppg) completes the three-headed monster leading Cal back to relevance in the hoops world. 

I’m not quite ready to believe the Trojans are back after one good performance against a bad Beavers team. That was the first time since January 6 that they reached 70 points and the offense has been anemic sans Collier. 

While there’s a chance the 5-star freshman returns to the court tonight, I’ll make a bet against his health considering this marks just four weeks since he broke his hand. He was originally given a four-to-six-week timetable, so even if he does make it back to the court, I’d be surprised if he’s 100%. 

USC has been awful on the road with a 1-6 straight-up record. It has yet to win a conference road game in five tries, dropping four straight by double digits. That includes unsavory losses to Arizona State by 15 points and Oregon State by 16. 

It also hasn’t played well as an underdog, going winless across seven games when catching points.

Cal has played well at home over the last month and has notched impressive wins over Colorado and Washington State. It hasn’t been overmatched even in home losses — outside of a 19-point loss to Arizona (no shame in that!), its last three home defeats have come by a combined seven points. 

These teams are fairly evenly matched but Cal is playing well while USC has just one win since January 6 and may still be shorthanded. The Bears have played well at home in conference play while the Trojans have yet to find a road Pac-12 win. 

My best bet: California -2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

USC vs California same-game parlay

California -2.5

Over 148.5

33% boost available

+236 +314 at DraftKings

Both teams have been trending to the Under lately, but this is a good time to buy back on the Over at a fair number. If we zoom out and look at the full season of work, both teams have been very profitable to the Over — USC is 14-8 O/U while Cal is 13-9 O/U.

Enfield likes to play with pace and that’s evident as the Trojans rank 109th in adjusted tempo (KenPom), which is impressive considering the absence of a talent like Collier for a handful of games. 

Cal is a team with a better offense (92nd in adjusted efficiency) than defense (149th) and can thrive if this game turns up the tempo. The Bears are happy to let loose from downtown, chucking 25.5 three-point attempts per game (56th nationally). 

Open looks from behind the arc could be in abundance against a Trojans defense that has been miserable defending the perimeter, ranking 314th in three-point defense (35.7%) and 300th in three-pointers allowed per game (8.3). 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USC vs California spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has seen just a little bit of movement as Cal opened -2.5 and was briefly bet up to -3 before settling back down. That’s evident there’s some early USC buyback money out in the market. The total, meanwhile, hasn’t budged since opening at 148.5, but it’s still early. 

Be sure to track future fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool. 

These teams met back on January 3 with the Trojans capturing an 82-74 home victory. Enfield’s squad had a balanced scoring effort with five players reaching double digits, which was enough to overcome Tyson’s 23 points. 

Looking back at the recent history between these two programs, it’s been decidedly one-sided. USC has won 11 straight and is 7-3 ATS across the last 10 meetings. 

I’m willing to overlook those recent results considering this is the worst USC team we’ve seen since at least 2018-19 and this could be the best Cal team in seven years.

As for the total, recent history would indicate we’re in for a high-scoring affair. These teams are a combined 8-2 O/U in the last 10 meetings. 

I said earlier that USC doesn’t do much well when looking over its analytics. While that’s mostly true, the Trojans do tend to convert their looks inside the paint, ranking 30th in near-proximity field-goal percentage vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics. 

Inside looks may be there against a Cal defense that allows opponents to shoot 59.3% at the rim, which ranks just 252nd nationally. 

On the flip side, Cal has three shooters averaging at least 1.5 made 3-pointers per game (Jalen Cone, Jaylon Tyson, Jalen Celestine). The Bears may splash a fair amount of triples against a USC defense that ranks 298th in 3-point attempt rate and 261st in 3-point defense vs. the average opponent (again, via Haslametrics). 

USC vs California betting trend to know

USC is 0-7 SU as an underdog and 1-6 SU in away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. California.

USC vs California game info

USC vs California key injuries

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