UConn vs Creighton Odds, Picks and Predictions: Huskies Have No Answer for Ashworth

Steven Ashworth is not shy of letting it fly when given the chance, and with UConn struggling against spot-up shooters this season, our college basketball picks are backing the Creighton guard to pile up the points.

Feb 20, 2024 • 13:30 ET • 4 min read
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Steven Ashworth Creighton Bluejays NCAAB
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The UConn Huskies will look to continue their path of destruction when they head to Omaha to face the Creighton Bluejays. 

The Huskies have separated themselves from the rest of the country and have looked dominant over the last month. UConn comes into this one off an absolute beatdown of Top 5 Marquette. Creighton has also had a good few weeks. The Jays have won three straight, with two coming by 20 or more points. Before this trio of wins, though, it had lost two straight to conference opponents.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when I look at the college basketball odds and give my free college basketball picks for UConn vs. Creighton on February 20.

UConn vs Creighton best odds

UConn vs Creighton picks and predictions

It's hard to fathom a team beating UConn right now. A win here would make it the first team to have a 15-game winning streak in the Big East conference. In addition to that? A cover would give the Huskies their fourth straight and fifth in their last six. Creighton head coach Greg McDermott knows how difficult the task is, though, and he embraces it.

"The guys are playing at a high level right now," McDermott said. "These games are crucial this time of year. Hopefully we're ready to rock and roll against a very good UConn team."

Spot wise, you'd love to fade the Huskies here. UConn is coming off a big win, it's headed on the road for a short turnaround, and it's facing a capable opponent playing some of its best basketball of the season. But I can't get there.

On a neutral court, I make UConn close to a seven-point favorite, so even factoring in homecourt, I can't find a place where I'm backing the Jays' on a spread that has settled around three. Instead, looking to the player prop market for my best bet.

Enter Steven Ashworth. Volume has been the name of the game here as Ashworth has taken double-digit shot attempts five games straight now. And if that happens again, I like his chances to go Over his points total of 10.5.

I thought Creighton had the right idea in the first matchup between these two teams: it just couldn't make a shot. The Huskies held the Jays to 48 points and won by 14. Some of that was just pure lousy shooting luck. According to Synergy, the Jays missed 11 open jump shots, which explains why some advanced shooting metrics suggested the game was much closer than it otherwise was. 

Creighton attempted to attack the Huskies at its weakest point: spot-up defense. 

UConn is near the bottom of the Big East in spot-up defense and in the bottom 33rd percentile nationally. Ashworth is one of the best players to attack this. Not only is he among the top shooters on this Creighton team, but he is also due for some massive positive regression.

Consider this from ShotQuality: Ashworth shoots 28% on open 3-point attempts. Despite this, he has a 41% ShotQuality rating based upon those attempts and skillset. More or less, Ashworth should be shooting almost 13% higher from three than he has this season!

That's a massive discrepancy against his actual percentage, and it sets him up to have an enormous game shortly. Why not here against a team that gives up open looks and one he's already proven he'll get a high amount of volume against?

My best bet: Steven Ashworth Over 10.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)

UConn vs Creighton same-game parlay

Steven Ashworth Over 10.5 points

Tristen Newton Over 14.5 points

I'm pairing Tristen Newton Over 14.5 points with my best bet, and this mostly comes down to Creighton's fairly awful pick-and-roll defense.

The Jays have allowed opponents to score at a clip of .84 points per possession, which puts them in the Bottom 20 percentile of college basketball. Newton is well-suited to take advantage of this as he is one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the country.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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UConn vs Creighton spread and Over/Under analysis

The spot favors Creighton significantly, but my projections see zero value in the spread of seven.

The best way for me to attack this game is to bet it live and, in a perfect world, get a decent middle between the two teams. I don't anticipate this one being another routine blowout for the Huskies. At some point, they have to come back down to earth and have a poor shooting game. This is an ideal spot for that.

With that said, UConn is still significantly skilled at scoring in various ways. I'll look for Creighton to start strong and consider dabbling in the live markets on the Huskies. In the same vein, if the Huskies are the team starting strong, I'll do the same with the Jays. 

I lean to the Over of 144.5.

It's hard for me to imagine this game being the same sluggish one we saw in the first meeting back in Storrs. The Jays aren't the same "blind bet Over" team from years past, but it's still in their best interest to speed up this game, and I expect them to do an excellent job of this here. It also doesn't hurt that they should do a better job of making their open shots based on pure percentages, and I projected this one to hit close to 155.

UConn vs Creighton betting trend to know

UConn has hit the moneyline in 28 of their last 30 games (+25.10 Units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Creighton.

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UConn vs Creighton game info

Location: CHI Health Center, Omaha, NE
Date: Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

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