Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Longhorns Hang Tight With Plenty of Buckets

Baylor is rightly favored over Texas based on its status as a potential Top-5 team heading into March Madness and the Longhorns' general inconsistency over the last two months. Now healthy, however, Texas can deploy its usual high-octane attack.

Mar 4, 2024 • 10:27 ET • 4 min read
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Max Abmas Texas Longhorns NCAA College Basketball
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Tonight's college basketball slate has a Texas-sized showdown in the Big 12  when the No. 15 Baylor Bears host the Texans Longhorns.

The Bears are flying high after a huge home win over Kansas on Saturday, lifting BU to third in the conference heading into the final week of the regular season. The college basketball odds have Baylor as a home favorite inside Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion tonight.

The Longhorns already own a victory over the Bears, taking BU down 75-73 at home in January. Texas has struggled with consistency ever since that win (6-5 SU and ATS) but brings a two-game winning run to Waco and looks to get hot at just the right time.

I dissect the spread and Over/Under for this Big 12 battle and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Texas at Baylor on March 4.

Texas vs Baylor best odds

Texas vs Baylor picks and predictions

Texas Longhorns head coach Rodney Terry could be putting it all together at just the right time, with only two games left before the Big 12 Tournament. 

After riding a roller coaster for most of February, the Longhorns have strung together two straight wins for the first time since Jan. 23 after posting twin 81-point efforts in victories over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Texas struggled with lingering ailments leaving the rotation broken during that 11-game stretch but is now at full strength and showcasing its depth. The Horns reserves were huge in those recent wins, providing 68 total points off the pine versus TTU and Okie State.

Sophomore guard Chendall Weaver is now coming off the bench, scoring 16 and 15 points in relief in those last two games and allowing Texas to sustain its offensive charge. The Longhorns are one of the best offenses in the Big 12 and were averaging more than 77 points for the majority of the season before injuries took their toll. 

Texas travels well, boasting an effective field goal rate of 51.8% as a visitor and putting up more than 74 points per road game. The Horns will need all the points they can muster in Waco. Baylor is No. 2 in offensive efficiency in the conference and scoring close to 86 points per homestand on the year.

The Longhorns have a team total of 69.5 points for tonight’s game, a derivative number that reflects the defensive prowess of some of Texas’ recent foes. It managed outputs of just 61, 62, and 67 points in the three games before this recent run but did face the likes of Houston, Kansas State, and Kansas — all of which rank Top 20 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric.

The Bears are 69th in the hallowed defensive stat and sit near the bottom of the Big 12 in defensive efficiency and effective field goal rate allowed. Baylor has watched four of its last five foes score at least 69 points while giving up an average of 71.2 in that stretch.

Game models call for a solid offensive effort from the Longhorns tonight, with their projected team total at 72 points. That’s more than enough headroom for the Over on Texas’ solo output.

My best bet: Texas team total Over 69.5 (+102 at Pinnacle)

Texas vs Baylor same-game parlay

Texas TT Over 69.5

Max Abmas Over 14.5 points 

Over 144.5

The Longhorns have their rotation locked in the past two games and projections call for at least 72 points from Texas tonight.

Max Abmas averages more than 17 points on the road and is over his late-season blip, with efforts of 15 and 18 points in the past two games.

Game models call for between 148 and 150 points between these Big 12 teams tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened Baylor as a 7-point home favorite and that spread has slimmed to as low as -6.5 as of Monday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 54% of early picks are taking the points with Texas.

The Bears are looking to lock in a Top-4 seed in the Big 12 Tournament and put a significant feather in their cap with a win over Kansas this past weekend. Baylor won 82-74 as a 4-point home favorite, improving to 14-2 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in Waco this season.

Baylor has played its past three games without junior guard Langston Love, who has been limited by a knee injury in early February. He’s averaging more than 11 points and is a game-time decision for tonight’s tilt.

The Longhorns bring momentum into this Lone Star State rivalry, having knocked off Oklahoma State and Texas Tech by double digits in their last two showings. Texas is one of the better offenses in the Big 12 and that has traveled strong, with the Horns scoring and shooting well in rival gyms.

This Over/Under total opened at 146 points and is bouncing between 144.5 and 146 as of Monday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 61% of early total picks are siding with the Over/.

Baylor is 15-13 Over/Under on the season, with an 8-7 O/U count at home. The Bears have topped the total in seven of their last dozen games, including the 75-73 loss in Austin which played Over the closing total of 147 points.

Texas is 17-12 O/U and that offensive pop has helped them go 6-3 O/U in true road games. The Longhorns are on a three-game Over run and have played above the total in five of their last six contests heading into Monday night.

Texas vs Baylor betting trend to know

Texas has gone Over the total in five of its eight games as a road underdog this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Baylor.

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Texas vs Baylor game info

Location: Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX
Date: Monday, March 4, 2024
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Texas vs Baylor key injuries

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