St. John's vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: Just What the Doctor Ordered

Rick Pitino continues his trip through the Big East and is in the spotlight when the St. John's Red Storm hit the road to face its stiffest season test against the No. 5 ranked UConn Huskies.

The Huskies have certainly looked the part of a defending National Champion for much of the season, but with that said, it enters today with a conference loss to Seton Hall. It was a bit of a shocker, but in that Wednesday loss, UConn couldn't generate enough offense and finished the game scoring just 60 points.

It'll be determined to rectify that here. Things have improved recently for St John's after a sluggish start, having ripped off two straight wins and four in its last five. It'll enter this game after a conference-opening win against Xavier, where it handled the Musketeers virtually throughout. 

What's the best bet? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give it in our college basketball picks for Wednesday, December 27. 

St. John's vs UConn best odds

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St. John's vs UConn picks and predictions

The central story surrounding this matchup is Donovan Clingan's status. The big man and primary rim protector for the UConn Huskies was injured in the loss to Seton Hall and had an MRI (results unknown. His status has been left in the air for this game.

The primary effects on this matchup if he's unable to go will be felt on the defensive side, but we'll avoid that aspect of the handicap altogether. We're taking UConn to go over its 79.5-point team total as our best bet. 

UConn head coach Dan Hurley wasn't happy with his team much this week. "That performance was a stain for us," Hurley said earlier this week.

Part of the reason that performance was such a stain was because of how inefficient the offense was. It put up an offensive efficiency rating of 105. That mark was not only the worst of its season but also the worst for them since it last played this Seton Hall team a year ago. It followed up with an 88-point performance against Providence. I'm backing it to respond similarly here.

The St John's Red Storm have had some serious defensive issues this season and they'll be magnified in this matchup. The Johnnies enter today struggling to defend individual guards making plays; in other words, they've been unable to stop straight-line drives.

Their isolation defense numbers best indicate that. As we head into this game, they allow just over .90 points per possession and 44.8% shooting on isolation sets. That's a problem against UConn. 

The Huskies have elite guards that will pressure you to defend them 1-on-1. On the season, it rates in the Top-2 percentile of isolation scoring in college basketball. Although this is a small sample size, it matches up with the eye test.

That eye test says that Tristen Newton is a bucket-getter, which is why he enters today at the top of the conference in isolation scoring and double-figures in six of the last seven games. I expect him to lead the way for a motivated UConn offense, forcing a series of defensive breakdowns. 

A second looming significant factor in this game is how reliant St. John's is on turnovers and how the Huskies have generally been excellent at holding onto the ball this season.

It's a battle of two strengths as St. John's enters this game with a Top-50 turnover forced rate, and UConn enters with a Top-50 turnover rate. St John's likely puts UConn into positions where it has to defend more in the halfcourt and for longer. It's struggled this season when it's had to do that, which is another feather in our cap with this play. 

Play UConn to bounce back tonight, but more than that, back the offense to respond in this spot against a St. John's offense that it can slice open. I projected this number at 83.5, so I can't turn down getting a multiple-possession edge. 

My best bet: UConn team total Over 79.5 (-120 at bet365)

St. John's vs UConn same-game parlay

UConn team total Over 79.5

Tristen Newton Over 16.5 points

+170 at bet365

It's hard to imagine being surprised if you read the above; I'm pairing my best bet with a closely correlated prop. 

Newton should be able to do a good job getting to the rim and scoring or getting fouled. St. John's has yet to stay in front of opposing guards successfully with lateral quickness. Newton has that speed and, in addition, is one of the best individual scorers in the country. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. John's vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis

This is a tough spot for St John's and I think not being able to force turnovers will cause a multitude of issues. Those issues are two-fold.

One problem is those above about having to defend longer in the halfcourt and thus be given more of an opportunity for its defensive issues to show themselves. The second part is that it will have a more challenging time getting easy buckets via its full-court press.

Likewise, it'll be forced to execute more in the halfcourt in a hostile environment against a more talented group of players. I'm not sure it will hang around long enough to do that and cover the +11 number.

I have a limited opinion on the full-game total and feel most comfortable relying on UConn exclusively. I'm still determining what St John's offense will look like when it's consistently asked to execute in the halfcourt, and because of that, I'm staying away.

Recent history would suggest points here; the last 10 matchups between these two teams have seen its games go Over at a 7-3 clip.

St. John's vs UConn betting trend to know

UConn has hit cashed their team total Over in nine of their last 12 games (+5.65 units / 41% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. UConn.

St. John's vs UConn game info

St. John's vs UConn key injuries

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