The problem with losing a mid-week game is that you have to wait extra long to get another shot at victory. That has the Buffalo Bills champing at the bit as they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13.
Buffalo was trounced by Houston last Thursday, increasing the already growing doubts surrounding this AFC East team. As for Pittsburgh, its early lead in the AFC North has evaporated, thanks to a 2-4 record over its last six.
Below, I offer my early leans and NFL picks for the Bills vs. Steelers on Sunday, November 30.
Bills vs Steelers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Bills vs Steelers spread pick: Steelers +4.5
The spread is all over the place due to Aaron Rodgers’ fractured left wrist. The Pittsburgh Steelers' veteran QB was held out for Week 12’s loss to Chicago and is listed as questionable for Week 13.
Some books have the Buffalo Bills at -3.5, while others are at -4. However, FanDuel is on the other side of the underrated key number of four, offering the home team at +4.5. At that spread, I’ll grab the home underdog with a dangerous defense.
The Steelers' stop unit was stagnant to start the season, but has found its stride, at least as it pertains to “game-changing” plays. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in sacks and third in takeaways, including a fumble recovery for a touchdown in Week 12.
Even with backup QB Mason Rudolph under center, Pittsburgh should move the chains on this Bills defense. Buffalo has been bad against the run, and the Steelers rumbled for 186 yards on the ground against Chicago.
Early Bills vs Steelers total pick: Under 47.5
This Over/Under opened at 47.5 points between two key numbers of 47 and 48. That allows the bookmakers wiggle room when Rodgers’ status is updated. While the gap between Rodgers and Rudolph may not be that wide, the former MVP does still hold clout with the betting public.
Regardless of who’s under center, the Steelers will play possession football on the offensive side in an attempt to attack Buffalo’s soft spot but also limit Josh Allen's touches. Pittsburgh ran 36 times and chewed up more than 33 minutes in the loss to the Bears.
Buffalo could take a similar ground-and-pound approach. The Bills are the No. 2 rushing offense in DVOA at FTN, and face a Steelers run stop that sits in the lower third of the league. Pittsburgh hopes to get standout LB Alex Highsmith back for Week 13.
The weather could also slow things down in the Steel City, as extended forecasts show a possibility of rain and snow with temperatures around 40 degrees at Acrisure Stadium, where the terrible turf is slick in even the best of conditions.
Bills vs Steelers odds
- Bills vs. Steelers spread: Steelers +4.5
- Bills vs. Steelers moneyline: Bills -220, Steelers +184
- Bills vs. Steelers Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Bills vs Steelers
- Bills vs. Steelers matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, PA
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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