The 8-3 Indianapolis Colts have now lost two of their last three games but are back at home for the first time since Week 8 when they host a hot Houston Texans team that has won four of their last five games on Sunday, November 30.
My early Texans vs. Colts predictions and NFL picks expect the Texans defense to stay hot, but just not be able to quite keep up with the Colts offense.
Texans vs Colts predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Texans vs Colts spread pick: Texans +4.5
While I like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game back at home, this spread is too much for a divisional rivalry game against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Houston Texans may be 6-5, but they have been competitive in every game this season.
The Texans lost their five games by a combined 24 points, including losing by three points to the Denver Broncos and five points to the Los Angeles Rams. The big reason they stay competitive is their top-notch defense.
They rank second in the NFL, allowing only 16.5 points per game. They are also the best defense in the NFL at defending the play-action pass, which will hurt Daniel Jones, who thrives in the play action. After such a hot start, the Colts' offense has certainly cooled off a bit over the past three games.
The Colts were held to 20 points in each of their two recent losses and had 25 points in regulation against the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin. They are going to have another tough time finding the endzone against this defense, which is why I must take the points here at this number.
Early Texans vs Colts total pick: Under 44.5
As good as the Texans' defense has been this season, their offense has been that bad. They rank 21st in the NFL in points per game and 19th in total yards gained. They have been held to 19 points or less in six games this season.
While the Colts aren’t really known for their defense, they do rank ninth in the NFL in points per game allowed. They also have a ton of talent out there after the trade for Sauce Gardner and the return of Charvarius Ward from injury.
The Texans have been especially bad at rushing the football this season, ranking 23rd in yards on the ground per game. Meanwhile, the Colts rank seventh in rushing yards allowed per game. The Colts are also great at defending quick passes and defending passes when they blitz.
This is going to be a rare Colts game where the pace of play will be much slower, and we will likely see a lot more punts and field goals than usual. This is the lowest total the Colts have seen since Week 3, but I still like the Under here.
Texans vs Colts odds
- Texans vs. Colts spread: Colts -4.5
- Texans vs. Colts moneyline: Texans +167, Colts -191
- Texans vs. Colts Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Texans vs Colts
- Texans vs. Colts matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Indianapolis
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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