The Maui Invitational Final greets us this afternoon when USC faces off against Arizona State for the championship.
USC held off Seton Hall for a tight win yesterday, and later that night, Arizona State scored an eye-popping 58 second-half points to defeat Washington State.
My USC vs. Arizona State predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 26 see the Trojans rewarding the chalk-players.
USC vs Arizona State prediction
USC vs Arizona State best bet: USC -5.5 (-110)
The natural inclination in this matchup would be to take the Over with two high-powered offenses in a high-tempo game and two suspect defenses on the floor. However, some of that goes out the window when you consider the two teams are playing their third game in as many days and the situations surrounding those games.
Because of this, I’m often inclined to lean into the team that has more clear paths to easy baskets. That’s quite clearly the USC Trojans, and I’ll grab them to get the cover.
Of the many advantages that jump out here, perhaps the one that is the most glaring is the simplest: the free-throw line.
The Trojans’ large athletic prowess against their opponent has been on display more often than not this year, and it’s helped them to the fifth-highest free throw rate in the country. That’s quite an issue for an Arizona State Sun Devils team that has fouled at an enormously high clip this season.
So often in these types of environments, the tilting factors aren’t as granular. It’s the little things, like free-throw disparities, that can tilt the game as much as any other.
Sure, I view the Trojans as having more overall talent, less shot volatility, and a serious physicality edge. That helps too. It’s just another reason why I expect them to cover, and I’d play this to -7.
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USC vs Arizona State same-game parlay
Even with tired legs, both defenses will struggle to defend. More importantly, they are particularly bad in transition.
I expect a sloppy game that’s played at a rather quick pace, and when you couple that with USC going to the stripe so often, it’s a good environment for the Over.
USC vs Arizona State SGP
- USC -5.5
- Over 164.5
USC vs Arizona State odds
- Spread: USC -5.5 | Arizona State +5.5
- Moneyline: USC -235 | Arizona State +190
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
USC vs Arizona State betting trend to know
USC has hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+9.50 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Arizona State.
How to watch USC vs Arizona State
| Location | Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, HI |
| Date | Wednesday, November 26, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
USC vs Arizona State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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