The No. 9-seeded Utah State Aggies face the No. 8 Villanova Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
Although the Aggies were the best team in the Mountain West Conference, my Utah State vs. Villanova predictions are fading them against a power conference foe.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region clash on March 20.
Utah State vs Villanova prediction
Who will win Utah State vs Villanova?
Villanova: The Wildcats are coming off an ugly loss to Georgetown, but that puts their stock at a buy-low point.
They are still 24-8 this season, with six of those defeats coming against ranked teams. In what should be a coin flip game, I'll take them at plus money.
Utah State vs Villanova best bet: Villanova moneyline (+105)
Over the last five years, Mountain West Conference teams are 10-21 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, and they are just 5-14 ATS when removing San Diego State Aztecs from the equation. Meanwhile, the Big East Conference is 37-21 ATS over that span.
Although the Utah State Aggies excel at forcing turnovers, the Villanova Wildcats take care of the ball. The Wildcats also boast crisp ball movement and multiple outside shooters who can unlock the Aggies' "fist" zone defense.
Despite the Wildcats having issues in their frontcourt, especially after the injury to Matthew Hodge, Utah State doesn't have the bigs to take advantage.
COVERS INTEL: Kevin Willard should be very familiar with the matchup-zone defense employed by the Utah State Aggies, as it was invented by his father, Ralph Willard.
Utah State vs Villanova same-game parlay
The Wildcats are built around their backcourt, and those guards will have to play well for them to win.
Bryce Lindsay has dropped at least two dimes in 22 of 32 games this season. Meanwhile, Tyler Perkins is their best scorer and 3-point shooter. He'll have success from deep against an Aggies squad that is vulnerable on the perimeter.
Utah State vs Villanova SGP
- Villanova moneyline
- Tyler Perkins Over 16.5 points
- Bryce Lindsay Over 1.5 assists
Our Big Dance SGP: March is for Guards
Utah State is also anchored by premium guard play. Mason Falslev averages 16.1 ppg and does most of his damage inside the arc where he shoots 56.6%. He'll score against a 'Nova squad that ranks 281st in opponent 2PT% (54.4%) since the start of January.
His primary set-up man will be Drake Allen who has racked up 5+ assists in four of the last five games.
Utah State vs Villanova SGP
- Tyler Perkins Over 16.5 points
- Bryce Lindsay Over 1.5 assists
- Mason Falslev Over 15.5 points
- Drake Allen Over 4.5 assists
Utah State vs Villanova odds
- Spread: Utah State -1.5 (-110) | Villanova +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State -125 | Villanova +105
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-110) | Under 147 (-110)
Utah State vs Villanova betting trend to know
The Wildcats have cashed the first-half moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. Villanova.
How to watch Utah State vs Villanova
| Location | Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, March 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Utah State vs Villanova key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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