Iowa State will have plenty of attacking opportunities when it meets Tennessee State in the NCAA Tournament.
This Tigers defense is suspect, especially when it can’t overwhelm a team with superior athleticism, and we expect that to show in this game.
My Iowa State vs. Tennessee State predictions and March Madness picks break down why Josh Jefferson will shred this poor defense on Friday, March 19.
Tennessee State vs Iowa State prediction
Who will win Tennessee State vs Iowa State?
Iowa State: Pick and choose your own angle, but a Cyclones loss here would be among the most surprising results I could imagine in this tournament. Tennessee State’s 16% turnover rate against a team that produces them at a Top-5 level is a killer for any upset bid.
Tennessee State vs Iowa State best bet: Joshua Jefferson Over 4.5 assists (-105)
The main risk here is Josh Jefferson losing minutes in a blowout, but with a line under five, it's worth it.
He operates as a point forward and facilitates nearly every action the Iowa State Cyclones should exploit. His passing ability makes him one of my favorite players to watch.
The Tennessee State Tigers, despite their athleticism, are a poor defensive team, especially against bigs cutting off rolls and drive-and-kick actions, where they rank in the Bottom 25%.
Jefferson is the primary passer in both spots, putting him in a strong position to generate assists if the game stays even moderately competitive.
COVERS INTEL: Tennessee State plays at the 38th-fastest tempo in the country (71.1 adjusted tempo), significantly quicker than Iowa State's pace at 67.0. This isn't your typical slow-it-down No. 15 seed.
Tennessee State vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Milan Momcilovic is one of the best shooters in the country. He’s fresh off hitting eight threes against Arizona in the Big 12 title game and should have no issue finding openings here against a leaky drive and kick defense.
Tennessee State vs Iowa State SGP
- Joshua Jefferson Over 4.5 assists
- Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 threes
Our Big Dance SGP: Aaron it out!
Aaron Nkrumah is a flat-out bucket getter and, even against an elite defense, I’m simply betting on crazy volume to get him to the 15-point market.
Iowa State rarely allows transition opportunities, but if Tennessee State is to succeed, it will likely be by forcing Cyclone turnovers — something Iowa State is sometimes prone to.
Nkrumah is best positioned to capitalize on these turnovers for easy scores. I paired this with the Over because a projected fast tempo made my number closer to 151.
Tennessee State vs Iowa State SGP
- Joshua Jefferson Over 4.5 assists
- Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 threes
- Aaron Nkrumah Over 14.5 points
- Over 149.5
Tennessee State vs Iowa State odds
- Spread: Tennessee State +24.5 | Iowa State -24.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee State +1900 | Iowa State -33333
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Tennessee State vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State has cashed the Under in 17 of its last 25 games for +8.2 units and a 30% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee State vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Tennessee State vs Iowa State
| Location | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Friday, March 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Tennessee State vs Iowa State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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