March Madness Picks: Score Predictions for Every Sweet 16 Game

After a wild opening week to March Madness, the NCAA Tournament is down to the final 16 teams. 

I predicted the scores for every first-round game, and while I had my share of misses, I also nailed a few — including upsets by No. 11 seeds VCU and Texas.

I'm not predicting any outright upsets for this round, but there are betting angles I like based on my projected scores. These predictions are based on a combination of my own ratings, along with the data analysts at KenPom, Bart Torvik, Evan Miya, and Haslametrics.

Here are my March Madness picks for every game in the Sweet 16.

March Madness score predictions 

Matchup	Score prediction	Implied score	Betting edge
Texas vs Purdue	80-73	78-71	Over 148 -110
Iowa vs Nebraska	68-66	67-65	Over 131.5 -110
Arkansas vs Arizona	88-78	87-79	Arizona -7.5 -110
Illinois vs Houston	74-70	72-69	Over 140 -110
St. John's vs Duke	72-68	74-67	St. John's +6.5 -110
Alabama vs Michigan	94-84	92-83	Michigan -9 -110
Michigan State vs UConn	70-69	69-67	Over 136 -110
Tennessee vs Iowa State	70-68	71-67	Tennessee +4 -110

Predictions made on 3-25. 

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Best Sweet 16 score predictions

Texas vs Purdue

Score prediction: Purdue 80-73

The Purdue Boilermakers have the top-rated offense in the country, and their outside shooters will torch a Texas defense that is vulnerable on the perimeter. That said, the Longhorns also have an efficient offense that will have success when they attack the rim.

👉 Bet Over 148 at bet365

Iowa vs Nebraska

Score prediction: Nebraska 68-66

This should be a terrific battle between two Midwest teams that nobody thought would be here before the season. Both are in the Top-20 in 2PT%, but Iowa ranks just 283rd in 2-point defense (54.2%) while Nebraska is 108th (50.3%) and doesn't allow many attempts at the rim.

👉 Bet Over 131.5 at bet365

Arkansas vs Arizona

Score prediction: Arizona 88-79

The Arkansas Razorbacks need a Herculean effort from Darius Acuff Jr. if they want to be competitive. Calipari's team will keep things close early, but Arizona will grind the Razorbacks down with its superior physicality and depth. 

👉 Bet Arizona -7.5 at bet365

Illinois vs Houston

Score prediction: Houston 74-70

This is a clash between one of the top offenses in the country and one of the best defenses. A methodical pace for both teams should lead to a lower-scoring contest, but the Houston Cougars will pull ahead — thanks in part to the home-court environment they'll enjoy at the Toyota Center. 

👉 Bet Over 141 at bet365

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St. John's vs Duke

Score prediction: Duke 72-68

Duke's offense has looked shaky since losing Caleb Foster, and the St. John's ball pressure can give them problems. That's Duke's length will also lock down the Johnnies' biggest offensive threats, and Cameron Boozer will take over down the stretch.

👉 Bet St. John's +6.5 at bet365

Alabama vs Michigan

Score prediction: Michigan 94-84

This will be an up-tempo game with plenty of points, and Michigan's ability to control the glass and get defensive stops will be the difference. The Alabama Crimson Tide also don't have quite as much firepower as usual with second-leading scorer Aden Holloway suspended indefinitely.

👉 Bet Michigan -9 at bet365

Michigan State vs UConn

Score prediction: UConn 70-69

The UConn Huskies have struggled with turnovers and fouls, but the Michigan State Spartans don't force turnovers or get to the line at a high rate. UConn's ability to disrupt passing lanes will skewer a Michigan State attack that heavily relies on Jeremy Fears to orchestrate the offense.  

Expect Dan Hurley to get the better of Tom Izzo in a game that comes down to the wire. 

👉 Bet Over 136 at bet365

Tennessee vs Iowa State

Score prediction: Iowa State 70-68

Joshua Jefferson seems unlikely to play, and Iowa State will really miss their star forward in a game of this magnitude. Jefferson isn't just a scorer, he's also the Cyclones top rebounder, a passing hub for their offense, and a big man that can stretch the floor.

His absence will hurt ISU's offense, but Tennessee's turnover-prone attack will also struggle against the Cyclones ball pressure. They'll turn those TOs into quick transition buckets that will make the difference in a tight game. 

👉 Bet Tennessee +4 at bet365

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