LSU vs Virginia Tech Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Tigers and Hokies Engage in a Defensive Affair

Break out the pink feathered boas. Kim Mulkey has her LSU Tigers in the Final Four, taking on the Virginia Tech Hokies Friday night, with the winner punching a ticket to the national title game.

Women's March Madness odds have Mulkey and No. 3 Louisiana State penned as slim 2-point favorites heading into tonight's game against the No. 1 seeded Hokies. Virginia Tech hasn't lost since January, riding a 15-game winning streak into Friday’s matchup.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this women’s NCAA Final Four matchup in our college basketball picks for LSU vs. Virginia Tech on March 31.

LSU vs Virginia Tech odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 31, 2023.

LSU vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions

The Hokies are a tough draw for the Tigers, who are getting the nod as 2-point favorites in this semifinal showdown.

If LSU is going to live up to that line, it will need to stick this game in mud and not allow the sharp-shooting Virginia Tech lineup to take and make shots from beyond the arc. The Hokies can get hot from outside and that leads to extended runs. At this point in the NCAAW bracket, the Tigers just aren’t built for an offensive shootout.

Louisiana State has not shot well during the tournament, watching its season-long shooting clip of 46% run ice-cold in the past four games to the tune of just 37%. And when it comes to matching VT’s ability to make shots from distance, Louisiana State comes up short. It’s hit a collective 11 triples in those four games, with just a 19% success rate from beyond the arc.

The Tigers have played defense on offense in the Big Dance, marching out at a slower pace with only 66.8 average possessions per game. And while the initial shots haven’t always fallen, LSU’s aggressive attack on the offensive glass has led to plenty of extra touches and second-chance points.

The Tigers, who pulled down the third most offensive rebounds in the country, are snatching almost 17 per game so far in the tournament but now run into a bigger Virginia Tech lineup that keeps foes off the glass on that end of the floor.

The Hokies boast a trio of super strong seniors under the rim in 6-foot-6 center Elizabeth Kitley, 6-foot-2 forward D'asia Gregg, and 5-foot-11 Taylor Soule. They give up only 8.6 average offensive rebounds on the season (ninth fewest) and have trimmed that to just 7.3 during tourney time.

Louisiana State’s team total for the Final Four is at 67.5 points — a mark LSU hasn’t surpassed in the previous three games against programs ranked well below Virginia Tech in terms of defensive rating.

The Hokies are a Top-11 defense in the land and have really leaned into that during this current winning streak. The 74 points allowed to Ohio State in the Elite Eight was just the second time in the past 18 games that VT has given up more than 67 points to an opponent, and the Buckeyes are a Top-8 offense that averages more than 80 points per contest.

The Tigers aren’t going to suddenly correct course on their shooting woes versus VT, especially with the Final Four swinging to the larger venue at the American Airlines Center, which offers a broader depth of view that can be tough for shooters to adjust to. On top of that, Louisiana State won’t be able to pick up as many bonus touches and extra-chance buckets from the offensive glass due to the Hokies' defensive rebounding prowess.

If LSU is going to cover this spread or just advance to the title game, it will need to win a defensive grinder, so it should stay below this team total of 67.5 points on Friday night.

My best bet: LSU Tigers team total Under 67.5 (-115 at bet365)

LSU vs Virginia Tech spread analysis

After a thrilling win over Miami in the Elite Eight, the Tigers opened as 1.5-point favorites for this Final Four showdown with the Hokies. That spread has since jumped to -2 at some books as of Thursday.

Louisiana State is a team hitting its stride at the right time. The Tigers entered the women’s tournament as a No. 3 seed, but many questioned whether this young team could hang with the elite programs in the country after getting boat raced by South Carolina in February and losing by two to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament final.

The Tigers were undefeated at home on the year and looked really good in Baton Rouge in the opening two games of the tournament, knocking off Hawaii and Michigan by a combined 47 points. However, things got much tighter with the tournament venturing to the neutral site in Greenville.

Louisiana State edged Utah 66-63 but failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16 and then was a little less ugly than Miami in a messy Elite Eight encounter, winning 54-42 as 10-point chalk. The teams combined to shoot just 37 for 120 (30.8%) from the floor, with LSU making the lone 3-pointer out of the collective 27 triples attempted.

Virginia Tech entered the NCAA tournament on an 11-game winning streak, including rolling through the ACC Tournament to secure a No. 1 seed. The Hokies punched their ticket to the Final Four with two wins on the other side of the country, beating No. 4 Tennessee and No. 3 Ohio State in Seattle.

Head coach Kenny Brooks has a tight rotation that leans heavily on the experience of the starting five, with four players averaging double figures, including 6-foot-6 senior center Elizabeth Kitley. She’s coming off a 25-point, 12-rebound performance over the Buckeyes, helping VT cover as 2.5-point favorites in an 84-74 victory.

LSU vs Virginia Tech Over/Under analysis

This total is sitting between 133.5 and 134 points, which is more in line with LSU’s Over/Under versus Miami and much shorter than Virginia Tech’s total of 140.5 points against Ohio State in the Elite Eight.

The Tigers get the nod in terms of defensive chops in this matchup, ranking No. 4 in HerHoopsStats defensive rating. Louisiana State flexed that muscle against Miami, limiting the Hurricanes to just over 30% shooting and forcing 18 turnovers while also dominating the glass for a 49-35 edge in rebounds.

The issue with LSU comes in the offense, where the Tigers have struggled during the tournament. On the year, Louisiana State fired at a 46% clip and ranked No. 6 in offensive rating. However, through four tournament tilts, LSU is hitting just over 37% of its field goal attempts and is averaging less than 65 points per game.

Virginia Tech has put forth an average of almost 72 points so far in the tournament and has the 3-point touch to light up the scoreboard. The Hokies are among the better shooting teams from outside, knocking down over 34% of their shots from distance in the Big Dance so far.

Defensively, Virginia Tech can hold its own, ranking 11th in HerHoopStats defensive rating with a sizable interior defense and pressure in the passing lanes that disrupt opponents’ offensive sets, allowing the eighth fewest assists per contest. The Hokies also clean the glass on the defensive end and don’t allow for many second-chance points.   

LSU vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know

Virginia Tech has held 16 of its last 18 opponents to 67 points or less. Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Virginia Tech.

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