NC State vs Texas Tech Predictions, Picks, and Odds: McMillian Stays Hot in March Madness Round of 64

The first night of March Madness ends in the South Region of the March Madness bracket with an intriguing matchup of NC State vs. Texas Tech.

The Wolfpack enter tonight's contest fresh off a miraculous run in the ACC Tournament, where it won five games in five days and arguably saved the employment of its head coach. It finished things in style with a win against in-state rival North Carolina to capture the crown.

Texas Tech had a nice finish to its season. Things didn't go well when it met Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, but it managed to win four of its last five games of the season and came into the dance with some relatively strong momentum. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give out our college basketball picks and predictions for Thursday, March 21.

Stay up to date with all our March Madness picks as the tournament progresses.

NC State vs Texas Tech best odds

NC State vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have two of the best shooters in the country in Chance McMillian and Kerwin Walton. The former is a junior guard who has been playing some of the best basketball of his career.

"I feel like my role is just to come in and just bring a presence," McMillian said last week after a win against BYU, "No matter if it is offense or defense. I don't try to come out and just get shots up. I just do whatever's needed to put us in a position to win."

In this matchup, what's needed of McMillian is to get up shots and make open ones, specifically from deep. That's the weakness of the NC State Wolfpack defense, and that's what we're backing him to do with our best bet. We're going deeper for a value play and taking an alternate line of McMillian Over 2.5 made 3s at +200 as our best bet. It's a prop that I priced at around +120, making it one of the best values on the board.

One of the biggest surprises of NC State's ACC Tournament run was how it avoided a team going nuclear from deep. That's because the Wolfpack haven't been good, mostly at any point this season, at defending shooters. 

There's a reason that it ranks in the Bottom 35% of college basketball against spot-up sets. There's also a reason it ranks 243th in the country against the deep-ball, yet their last three opponents shot just 28% combined over their last three games.

According to ShotQuality, however, some of that was simple shooting variance. It graded the game against North Carolina — the team you'd expect to feast from deep — as an 11-point win for the Heels. I'm thinking some of that regression pendulum swings back the other way for the Pack, and I expect McMillian to take advantage of that.

McMillian is on a nice run for Texas Tech, as he's scored double-figures in six straight games. This feat is particularly impressive for a player who averages just 10.9 points. Half of those games saw him make three or more 3s.

In general, my thought process with this handicap is that NC State comes back to who they are after the high of a magical run. "Who they are" is a frantic half-court pressing defense but one that leaves a bevy of open shooters against offenses that make it move.

McMillian comes into this game with a spot-up shooting percentage that rates him among the nation's best (Top 9% of college basketball). I'm expecting him to get a good amount of open looks from deep, and with how he's played over the last month, I like him to knock them down at a high clip.

My best bet: Chance McMillian Over 2.5 made 3s (+200 at bet365)

NC State vs Texas Tech same-game parlay

Chance McMillian Over 2.5 made 3s

Texas Tech moneyline

+300 at bet365

We're pairing our best bet with Texas Tech to complete the job in a highly correlated same-game parlay.

More than the matchups in this game or anything else, there's a distinct coaching advantage for Tech. Head coach Grant McCasland is a stellar game planner with prep time, as he sports a 55-36 ATS record with at least five prep days.

His counterpart is not that. Kevin Keatts has never won an NCAA Tournament game, going 0-4 in his four attempts. Before the conference tournament run this season — aided by some extremely fortunate shot variance — Keatts was 1-4 ATS as an underdog in conference games. I'm expecting a superior game planner to win out here in a spot where Keatts has rarely shown the ability to overperform.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

NC State vs Texas Tech spread and Over/Under analysis

I don't have much of a feel for the spread of -5.5 here. Even though I expect Texas Tech to get the job done, I projected this spread -5, so there is no edge.

I expect McCasland to assemble a strong game plan that limits usage-monster DJ Burns' post touches. You stand a good chance of beating NC State when you can do that. The Wolfpack rode a four-game losing streak into the ACC Tournament, and in three of those games, Burns was held to single-digits.

While much is made about the momentum of NC State heading into this tournament, Tech certainly has a fair amount of its own. Before the loss against Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, the Red Raiders' four straight wins included four consecutive covers.

I'm in the same boat with the total here. My number in this game is 144.5, and there's not much of an edge to have.

These two teams have never played in their history, but the game is a clash of styles. Texas Tech would prefer a pace below 65 possessions, and NC State would want to get that number over 70. Whichever style wins out will determine if this goes Over or Under.

Each of these teams has been relatively balanced in the last 10 games. Six of the last 10 games for NC State have gone Over, while six of the last 10 for Texas Tech have gone Under.

NC State vs Texas Tech betting trend to know

Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+11.50 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Texas Tech.

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NC State vs Texas Tech game info

NC State vs Texas Tech key injuries

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