Usyk vs Dubois Predictions, Picks & Odds for July 19

Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois return to the ring for the next chapter of their rivalry with the stakes higher than ever.

The winner of this bout will reign unopposed as the undisputed heavyweight champion, and though both fighters are coming off career-defining wins, this rematch figures to be a repeat of their 2023 clash.

Usyk is a -300 favorite over +235 underdog Dubois. Here are my best free Boxing picks for Usyk vs. Dubois from Wembley Stadium in London.

Usyk vs Dubois prediction and pick

• My fight prediction: Oleksandr Usyk moneyline (-300 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet: Oleksandr Usyk Rounds 7-9 (+450 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
When Oleksandr Usyk battered and stopped Dubois back in 2023, there was no real reason to suggest there would be a rematch. The “controversial” low-blow/body shot wasn’t intriguing enough to distract from the fact that Usyk won every round convincingly and Dubois failed to land in double-digits for the duration of their nine-round bout.

However, Dubois’ fortunes changed winning three fights in a row, including an upset win over Anthony Joshua last June.

Usyk is coming off back-to-back wins over Tyson Fury to cement his place as the best heavyweight of the generation, and while those fights were grueling and highly skilled contests, he came out on top clearly in both contests.

Though Usyk is 38, he’s displayed sublime fundamentals and is as sharp as he’s ever been, and he’ll go into the fight with Dubois knowing full well that not much has changed since their 2023 bout. For Dubois’ athleticism, Usyk constantly beat him to the punch and beat the spirit out of him.

It wouldn’t be surprising that Dubois comes in with a head of steam, considering he’s on the run of his career. While the Joshua upset was definitive, the wins that preceded it, versus Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic, were essentially come-from-behind wins where Dubois was bailed out by his power.

An aborted fight with Joseph Parker would have been more telling on how far he’d come since the Usyk fight, and I was confident up until Dubois pulled out with an injury that Parker’s physicality was going to be enough to beat him.

I don’t see the growth from Dubois. He’s the same fighter he’s always been, and a recent string of wins will have him feeling confident and may even have him perform slightly better this time around.

There isn’t much else he’ll be able to do once he realizes that Usyk has him figured out, and each precise shot the southpaw lands will send him back to the memories of their first fight, and frustration will set in when he again finds he cannot break Usyk’s defense.

Usyk has a chance to become a two-time undisputed champion after boxing politics took the IBF belt from him and put it on Dubois, and he’s going to fight like a man possessed to ensure he gets it. Dubois doesn’t stand much of a chance, so Usyk is the pick.

Best best analysis
Usyk outlanded Dubois 2-1 in overall punches over nine rounds, and the only notable offense Dubois displayed was a low blow that irritated Usyk and made him step on the gas. In the punishing rounds that followed, Usyk took Dubois apart and broke him mentally before the stoppage.

There will be a lot of self-belief and confidence that Dubois is renewed and can avenge his loss, but reality will set in as soon as Usyk decides he’s had enough.

I don’t see Dubois going the distance or improving on his previous performance. Usyk’s counter-punching and inside fighting will sap his resolve, and those sharp shots will take their toll to the point where Usyk scores another stoppage.

My best bet for the fight is that Usyk manages to stop Dubois between rounds 7-9.

Usyk vs Dubois odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-19.

Usyk vs Dubois tale of the tape

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