The shock return of the year happens this weekend when Manny Pacquiao ends his retirement with his sights on dethroning welterweight champion Mario Barrios.
The legendary Pacquiao aims to go out on his terms with a win and a title, but defending champion Barrios won’t idly stand by and give Pacquiao his happy ending.
Barrios is the -290 favorite over the +220 underdog Pacquiao. Here are my best free Boxing picks for Pacquiao vs. Barrios from the MGM Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Manny Pacquiao vs Mario Barrios prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Mario Barrios moneyline (-290 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Over 10.5 rounds (-135 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Manny Pacquiao is one of the greatest fighters of all time, and in most circumstances, there would be no doubt that he’d beat Barrios from pillar to post.
However, he’s also 46 years old and hasn’t fought in the four years since he lost to Yordenis Ugas, and while Barrios is undoubtedly the weakest of the welterweight champions at this present time, we can’t let sentimentality get in the way of logic.
While Pacquiao looked great at 42 during the loss to Ugas, and could have continued to compete if he scaled back his competition just a bit, he’s old, inactive, and coming in against a disrespected champion in his prime.
It is true that Barrios is nothing special and is likely on borrowed time, but he is not as bad as the experts say. He was good enough to give Gervonta Davis the toughest fight of his career, even making Davis doubt himself mid-fight before getting exhausted and succumbing to Davis’ power.
He was sturdy enough to hang tough with Keith Thurman, who handpicked him for an easy fight, and he made it a competitive one. He beat the man who beat Pacquiao to become welterweight champion, so he’s inconsistent, but not terrible.
Barrios works behind a heavy jab and is tall and long for the division. He doesn’t take too many risks with his offense and can throw big body punches when he gets inside. There isn’t much flash to his game, but he is incredibly tough and durable, and Pacquiao isn’t going to have the speed or stamina with this much time away to do to him what Davis or Thurman did.
Barrios’ inconsistencies manifest in abrupt delays in his offense, and he's slow to switch to defense, but he’s been active and shown the ability to be very tough over 12 rounds.
It’s hard to gauge how Pacquiao will look and for how long. Against Ugas, he started well, but his body failed him by the fourth round, with his legs being gone and his vaunted upper body movement unable to avoid Ugas’ hard counters and pot shots.
Before that fight, a 40-year-old Pacquiao had to make the most of a hot start against Thurman as he was unable to maintain his offense past the halfway point and had to rally late to avoid Thurman stealing the fight in the final few rounds.
The layoff is a critical intangible because fighters who compete at a high level well into their 40's remain active and adjust their style to focus on what they can still do from a fundamental standpoint. Pacquiao was always a swarmer, utilizing quick bursts of athleticism to get in and out, and we already saw how little of that he could do.
I wouldn’t put it past Pacquiao to find success early on and surprise the plodding Barrios with a few eye-catching shots early on. The problem for Pacquiao is that he’ll have to stop Barrios early because he won’t be able to wear him down late.
Barrios’ youth and physicality will come into effect soon enough, and he’ll take over the fight as Pacquiao slows to a crawl, perhaps as soon as the fifth round.
10 years ago, Pacquiao would have clobbered Barrios. Four years ago, I’d imagine he’d be able to win a decision. Now, with the ring rust and coming into the ring well past quitting time, I don’t see it happening. Barrios is the pick.
Best best analysis
Pacquiao and Barrios are both well-conditioned athletes who can take a punch and do enough to stay upright for 12 rounds. Barrios has never been the kind of fighter who can put together the kind of finishing blows to put someone out, nor has he shown that kind of killer instinct when he does manage to catch someone with a big shot.
Pacquiao was stopped twice early in his career, and it took the best punch of Juan Manuel Marquez’s career to fell him, and he’s incredibly durable.
While Barrios may outwork and frustrate Pacquiao, he’s more likely to box safely behind his jab than go for a finish unless it presents itself in the later rounds.
At the same time, Pacquiao lacks the explosiveness and timing to overwhelm Barrios early, and he’ll resort to using his legs to avoid a stoppage. My best bet is that the fight goes over 10.5 rounds.
Pacquiao vs Barrios odds
| Method of victory | Pacquiao | Barrios |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +220 | -290 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +475 | +130 |
| Win by points or decision | +550 | +200 |
| Draw | +1400 | +1400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-15.
Pacquiao vs Barrios tale of the tape
| Pacquiao | Barrios | |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Age | 30 |
| 5'5 | Height | 6'0 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Light welterweight |
| 67 inches (170 cm) | Reach | 70 inches (178 cm) |
| 62-8-2 | Record | 29-2-1 |
| 39 | Wins by KO | 18 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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