March Madness Moneyline Picks for Saturday, March 28

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst 19+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 27, 2026 , 10:21 AM ET • 4 min read

Find out why Phil Naessens is taking Purdue to beat Arizona outright in the Elite Eight. Plus, a moneyline pick for Iowa vs. Illinois.

Purdue Boilermakers NCAAM Fletcher Loyer
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) celebrates after making a 3-point basket.

We’re reaching the end of March Madness, and we have two solid Elite Eight matchups to consider for Saturday.

My Elite Eight moneyline picks see two Big Ten teams in favorable matchups advancing to next weekend’s Final Four.

Read on for my March Madness picks for March 28.

March Madness moneyline picks on Saturday, March 28

Matchup Pick
Iowa Iowa
vs
Illinois Illinois
Illinois -290
Purdue Purdue
vs
Arizona Arizona
Purdue +220

Lines courtesy of bet365.

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Expert March Madness Elite Eight moneyline picks for Saturday

No. 9 Iowa vs No. 3 Illinois: Illinois Illinois (-290)

The Illinois Fighting Illini have owned this matchup, winning nine of the last 10 against the Iowa Hawkeyes, and there’s no reason to think that changes Saturday.

They bring one of the best offenses in the country and make enough stops when it matters most. Iowa hasn’t been able to slow them down in recent meetings, and that’s likely to continue here.

Illinois is simply the more balanced team, and they’ve proven it in large samples against Iowa. That balance and consistency are why they reach the Final Four.


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No. 2 Purdue vs No. 1 Arizona: Purdue Purdue (+220)

The Purdue Boilermakers bring a ton of big game experience into this Elite Eight matchup with the Arizona Wildcats.

Arizona’s style shouldn’t bother them. Purdue is used to tough Big Ten games, and knows how to deal with high-scoring teams like this.

They’ll control the tempo and take Arizona out of their rhythm. Look for Purdue to pressure the Wildcats’ young guards, force bad shots, and slow the game down to beat them in the half-court.

Purdue’s experience should be the difference and send them to the Final Four.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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