Major upsets are a big part of what makes March Madness so special.
The No. 2 vs. No. 15 matchups always offer intrigue, as we’ve seen David topple Goliath many times throughout the years.
Below, we will look at the history of 15 seeds versus 2 seeds in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
How many times has a 15 seed beaten a 2 seed in March Madness?
In 156 NCAA Tournament matchups, the 15 seed has knocked off the 2 seed 11 times. That’s a record of 11-145.
So, it happens... just not every year.
We did not see a 15-seed win last year. In 2023, however, Princeton stunned 2-seed Arizona.
PRINCETON KNOCKS OFF 2-SEED ARIZONA 🤯#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/U9XHuN41ON
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2023
Crazy enough, that was the third straight March in which a 15 seed won a game. In 2022, Saint Peter’s shocked Kentucky, and in 2021 Oral Roberts defeated Ohio State.
NO. 15 SAINT PETER'S UPSETS NO.2 KENTUCKY, 85-79 🤯
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 18, 2022
Brackets have been BUSTED! #MarchMadness
(via @CBSSports)pic.twitter.com/yToln5jDeI
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What are the odds that a 15 seed wins against a 2 seed?
Teams seeded No. 15 have a 7.05% chance of beating a 2 seed. These odds are increasing over time, likely due to more and more parity in college basketball.
Consider that in the 1990s, a 2 seed beating a 15 seed occurred just three times. In the 2000s, it happened just once.
The turning point happened early in the 2010s. In 2012, there were a pair of No. 15 vs. No. 2 upsets in the same tournament. Another came in 2013, and yet another came in 2016.
There have been three so far this decade, and we aren’t even halfway through it.
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No. 2 vs. No. 15 seed history
Here is a look at the 11 times a No. 15 seed has upset a No. 2 seed.
- 2023: Princeton over Arizona, 59-55
- 2022: Saint Peter’s over Kentucky, 85-79
- 2021: Oral Roberts over Ohio State, 75-72
- 2016: Middle Tennessee over Michigan State, 90-81
- 2013: Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown, 78-68
- 2012: Norfolk State over Missouri, 86-84
- 2012: Lehigh over Duke, 75-70
- 2001: Hampton over Iowa State, 58-57
- 1997: Coppin State over South Carolina, 78-65
- 1993: Santa Clara over Arizona, 64-61
- 1991: Richmond over Syracuse, 73-69
