The biggest day of the college basketball season has arrived, with the Final Four set to tip off at 6:09 ET to cap off this March Madness bracket.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack and Purdue Boilermakers will begin our evening before the Alabama Crimson Tide and the UConn Huskies cap it off in what should be the higher-scoring of our two national semifinals.
The week between the Elite Eight and the Final Four has been a bit quiet, but there are still a few storylines to be aware of just before tip.
For a deeper dive into the latest Final Four odds and March Madness predictions, turn to Rohit Ponnaiya’s NC State vs. Purdue picks and predictions and Jason Logan’s Alabama vs. UConn picks and predictions.
Final Four odds update
These spreads have not moved much this week, despite clear majorities of bets on one particular team in each game.
NC State has received two-thirds of both the tickets and the betting handle at BetMGM, yet the spread has remained stuck at +9.5. Similarly, UConn has pulled in more than 60% of the tickets and the betting handle, but the spread has not grown past -11.5 after dabbling at -12 some earlier in the week.
Both totals have fallen by a point, despite the vast majority of bets and handle coming in on both Overs.
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Edey over everybody
Purdue star center Zach Edey has earned more faith from bettors than anyone else this tournament, hence their lining up to bet his Over 13.5 rebounds and Over 26.5 points at BetMGM, two of the three most-bet props in that semifinal at BetMGM.
Edey has grabbed at least 14 rebounds in all four NCAA Tournament games, and he has scored at least 27 points in three of the four — the exception being the second-round blowout of Utah State. Going back to the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Edey has tallied at least 27 in five of his last six games.
The second-most popular prop bet is on Edey’s counterpart, NC State’s DJ Burns Jr. and his points prop, Over 14.5 points. Burns has scored at least 15 points in three of his four games in this tournament and in six of the nine games in this magnificent Wolfpack run.
In fact, of the five most-bet player props in each semifinal, only one play is on an Under, Trey Kaufman-Renn at Under 5.5 points.
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Public Overs
With the public betting on the Overs, but the totals still each falling by a point, and all the sentiment behind Overs on player props, it warrants looking at the only previous Final Four held in State Farm Stadium, back in 2017 when North Carolina beat Gonzaga to win the national championship, led by Joel Berry II’s 22 points.
Of the three games that weekend, both semifinals went Over their totals, by 12 points and by half a point. The title game fell 19 points short of its total.
The Tar Heels one-point win against Oregon was the most memorable moment of the weekend, the Ducks putting together a final-minute flurry behind the likes of Jordan Bell, Payton Pritchard, and Dillon Brooks. Free throws propelled that game Over its total, accounting for 44 of the 153 points (with the total at 152.5), while the two teams combined to shoot 15-of-47 from beyond the arc, 31.9%.
The four teams combined to shoot 32.6% from three in State Farm Stadium, even though only one of them shot worse than 35.5% in the season, and two of them hit better than 38% of their 3-pointers that year.
Some doubt in tonight’s Overs may make sense given that history of teams struggling to shoot with the adjusted sight lines of the football stadium.
UConn’s travels
It has been a quiet week on the injury front, and none of these four teams have conjured up much drama. Well, aside from Huskies head coach Dan Hurley taking umbrage with the team’s travel struggles.
UConn expected to fly to Arizona on Wednesday evening, only for its plane to have mechanical issues. It took the NCAA until the early morning to find a way to get the Huskies into the air, costing them a good night’s sleep.
John Wooden always told his team that Thursday’s sleep was for Saturday’s game, and UConn was tucked into a hotel by Thursday night, so one would think the Huskies should have gotten proper rest during the week.
