The most fierce rivalry in college basketball will take the primetime stage tonight when Kentucky travels 75 miles down the road to face Louisville.
Louisville arrives with an offense that has looked otherworldly against lowly competition, scoring over 100 points in back-to-back games for the first time since 2020.
Kentucky has looked balanced and put together quite an offensive display themselves in a 107-59 win over Valparaiso.
This one has the makings for an instant classic, and my Kentucky vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks zero in on a player prop for Tuesday, November 11.
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Kentucky vs Louisville prediction
Kentucky vs Louisville best bet: Mikel Brown Over 1.5 threes (-110)
In what is a significant role reversal for this rivalry, it may be Louisville relying on individual brilliance from an NBA-level talent more than Kentucky. The Wildcats’ head coach spoke to this during the exhibition season.
“I think this team has potential, but we’re not run-away good. We’re just team-great,” Mark Pope said. “We’re not just going to go out and dominate people because our individual talent is overwhelming.”
Regardless of the outcome of this game, this is a quote I’ll be thinking about often this season when I evaluate Kentucky. It represents a real shift from historical norms. And, as it relates to this game, it’s Louisville that has a player capable of titling the game with his talent in Mikel Brown. I’m taking him over 1.5 threes as my best bet.
Kentucky abused Louisville offensively last year in this matchup, but Louisville kind of did the same with high-ball screens for former PG Chucky Hepburn. The college journeyman dropped 26 points with four threes.
I’d expect a similar approach from Cardinals coach Pat Kelsey—especially with Brown often guarded by a familiar foe for Louisville in Pittsburgh transfer Jaland Lowe. Not only did Louisville have success against him last season, but they also specifically sought him out in ball screens and isolations. That peaked in the second matchup when Hepburn scored 36 points with Lowe largely the primary defender.
With Louisville likely to reuse the same ball-screen approach, Brown projects well to clear 1.5. He knocked down two threes vs. Jackson State, and his U-19 FIBA World Cup tape from the Summer confirms the consistent deep range that drew him some gaudy NBA player comps.
I would play this to -142.
Kentucky vs Louisville same-game parlay
Louisville finished last season in the bottom 11th percentile of college basketball last season allowing 1.1 points per possession on plays classified as transition by hoop-explorer. I don’t expect that to change or improve much this season simply as a function of how they play. With that in mind, I expect Oweh to have a huge showing tonight, whether that's blowing by poor perimeter defenders or scoring on those transition opportunities.
This all naturally feeds into my play of the game going over 174.5 points. I projected a total of 178.5 and think this game will be played at a breakneck pace.
Kentucky vs Louisville SGP
- Mikel Brown over 1.5 threes
- Otega Oweh over 17.5 points
- Over 174.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: High-flying Cardinals
One sentence on the new legs. DON’T FORGET TO UPDATE THE SGP ODDS IN THE JUMPLINK TAG
Kentucky vs Louisville SGP
- Mikel Brown over 1.5 threes
- Otega Oweh over 17.5 points
- Over 174.5 points
- Sananda Fru under 0.5 assists
- Louisville moneyline — 1H
Kentucky vs Louisville odds
- Spread: Kentucky +6.5 | Louisville -6.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +210 | Louisville -260
- Over/Under: Over 174.5| Under 174.5
Kentucky vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has covered the 1H Spread in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Louisville.
How to watch Kentucky vs Louisville
| Location | KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY |
| Date | Tuesday, November 11, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Louisville key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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